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After a season of "bloopers" and bad luck, things may be starting to turn around for your expert. I closed last week with three 30-plus PRA performances, I hit on a few of my All-Star weekend picks (hooray LeBron, Superman Howard and Tim Duncan's halfcourt shot!), and I found ten bucks in the pocket of an old jacket the other day. I even got some fantastic painkillers after throwing my back out playing hoops. And my Pick One entry has moved up from the 85th percentile to the 92nd in just a few weeks. Now it's time to make my move to the top.

But is it too late? As a few of our message board users so kindly reminded me, I've made the occasional mistake and unlucky pick this season. I've picked players at the beginning of the week that would suddenly become injured and turn into DNP's a few days later. I've had otherwise solid players turn in some absolutely dreadful performances, including Yao Ming, Al Horford and Drew Gooden. And like all Denver fans, I mistakenly expected something from Kenyon Martin.

The good news however is that my strategy of holding players out until later in the season has started to pay off. Last week was a banner week for the Nature Boys. Going forward, I've got six of the top ten PRA players left, and seven of the top ten rookies. LeBron's still available for me, as are Kobe, Carmelo and Kevin Durant. I've also got high-PRA veterans returning from injury, like Gilbert Arenas, Kevin Garnett, Caron Butler and (maybe) Elton Brand.

The closeness of playoff races in both conferences can also help a Pick One player looking for a late-season surge. The West is an absolute dogfight, and each game from here on in should be a PRA-laden battle, with each team's premier players looking to come up big. In the East, only the Celtics look to eventually settle into "rest our players for the playoffs" mode, while eight teams are in shouting distance for the final three playoff spots.

As I see it, I've got 57 chances to move my way up about 4,000 spots. Is it a longshot? Probably. But I've got the guns to at least make this a respectable year, and at least hope to live up to my "expert" billing.

Starting a winning streak of picks:

Date: Monday, February 18, 2008
No Games, All-Star Break

Date: Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Player: Carlos Boozer - UTA [PF]
Opposition: vs Golden State Warriors
2007-08 Averages: 21.7 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 3.0 APG (35.5 PRA)
General Thoughts: I've been waiting to use Boozer, and now seems like the perfect time against the league's worst scoring and rebounding defense. A triple-double from Boozer just before the All-Star break told me that this is as good a time as any to use the PRA-friendly power forward. Andrei Kirilenko is another possibility here, but since I'm in a "go for broke" mode, I'll take Boozer and use AK-47 later in the year.

Date: Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Player: Hakim Warrick - MEM [PF]
Opposition: @ Los Angeles Clippers
2007-08 Averages: 8.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 0.4 APG (12.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: Two weeks ago, when the Pau Gasol trade went down, I guessed that the trade would open up opportunities for a younger Grizzlies forward. I just unfortunately happened to pick the wrong forward, as Warrick, and not Darko Milicic, seems to be the greatest beneficiary of Gasol's departure. Warrick was given a starting spot last week and has responded with 24-and 23-point performances, with double-digit rebounds in each. I"ll grab Warrick now before he wakes up out of this hot streak.

Date: Thursday, February 21, 2008
Player: Brandon Roy - POR [SG]
Opposition: vs. Seattle Supersonics
2007-08 Averages: 19.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 5.8 APG (30.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: While Roy has been great all year, he's been especially solid in February, averaging a PRA of 37.0 in five contests. Roy's assist numbers (7.8 in Feburary) have been especially solid lately, and should be great against a Sonics team that allows the fourth-most points in the league and the third-most assists. There are only three games this night, so you've hopefully saved some players here.

Date: Friday, February 22, 2008
Player: Kirk Hinrich - CHI [PG,SG]
Opposition: vs. Denver Nuggets
2007-08 Averages: 13.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 6.0 APG (22.9 PRA)
General Thoughts: Hinrich burned me two weeks ago, sitting out with bruised ribs just after I picked him. I may be a glutton for punishment, because I'm picking Hinrich again against a Nuggets team that allows the most assists in the league. Hinrich seemed recovered enough from his rib problem that he put up a PRA of 35 just before the All-Star break, so hopefully he's healthy for this game against Denver.

Date: Saturday, February 23, 2008
Player: Vince Carter - NJN [SG]
Opposition: vs. Indiana Pacers
2007-08 Averages: 20.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.1APG (31.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: I'm running on the assumption that Jason Kidd is traded by this point, leaving an even greater offensive responsibility to Carter. With Kidd gone, Vince will probably shoot, shoot and shoot some more. Luckily for Vince (and Pick One players), the Pacers allow their opponents to do just that, allowing the second-most points per game in the league.

Date: Sunday, February 24, 2008
Player: Larry Hughes - CLE [PG,SG]
Opposition: vs. Memphis Grizzlies
2007-08 Averages: 12.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.4APG (18.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: I don't know what's gotten into Larry Hughes. I have no idea what switch inside him has suddenly turned on and begun to put his generally errant into the basket. I can't possibly explain where his 40-point outburst against the Magic came from, or his subsequent 26-point binge against the Spurs. But I'll gladly try to squeeze some life out of this indecipherable hot streak by picking Hughes against the Grizzlies. However, I'm utterly befuddled in doing so. Dare I say…keep shooting Larry Hughes?

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