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By John Cregan, www.TalentedMrRoto.com
"Playing for Keeps" will provide fantasy hoops advice from a keeper league perspective each week.
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With his penchant for injury, can you trust that Baron Davis will warrant a keeper selection?
(Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images) |
Boy. That Didn't Work
I wrote this column a month or so ago about how I was mortgaging the future of my favorite keeper team for a two month run at first place. Basically, after a series of maneuvers, I had dealt Gilbert Arenas, Andrea Bargnani, Rudy Gay, and some spare change for a starting lineup that consisted of Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen and LeBron James.
Well, anyone with a firm grasp of the injury wire knows where that plan went.
I believe in going for it - in having confidence that you'll be able to find other cheap keepers. That you shouldn't get too attached to anyone in the quest for fantasy relevance. But I start to taste my own bile when the team I traded with, the team that tanked its season to play for next year, passes me in the standings.
To assuage my grief, I’ve started a new hobby – The Shield. How come none of you ever told me it was so good? I’ve watched 43 episodes in the past eight days, as I race next week’s season premiere.
Speaking Of Next Year
Around this time of the season, I start to get lots of "who should I keep" types of questions. Just like this one:
John,
I was hoping to get your suggestions for who to keep in this keeper league I'm in. There are no contracts or restrictions when it comes to keeping the players - just keep five guys for next year.
My team is: B. Davis, Kobe, Felton, Barbosa, Pierce, G. Wallace, Brand, Gasol, Okafor, D. Lee, Richardson, E. Jones, L. Walton and Dampier.
I was going to keep Kobe, Brand, Gasol and Okafor for sure. The question is do I keep Davis, Wallace or Barbosa?
I like these kinds of questions (the answer here is "Barbosa"), because it makes me take a deeper look at tons of players that might come up in a draft next fall.
Now, different leagues have different rules for their keepers. Some of you are in leagues where you simply pick 2-3 of your top keepers every year. You all need to change your keeper rules; those kinds of guidelines only breed a lack of competition.
If you're in a league with more nuanced keeper rules, you might be forced to think about things a bit.
Say you're confronted with a list like this and had to keep five:
Elton Brand
Deron Williams
Emeka Okafor
Luol Deng
Tracy McGrady
Andre Iguodala
Dwight Howard
Andre Miller
Tyson Chandler
If this was your list, congratulations. Who would you keep? Let's start with the obvious:
Elton Brand
Dwight Howard
Deron Williams
Andre Iguodala
Four top 20 players is a nice way to go into next year. Now Luol Deng is:
WAIT.
What?
TRACY MCGRADY.
What?
WHAT ABOUT TRACY MCGRADY?
Excuse me. I was talking about Luol Deng.
BUT WE'RE KEEPING MCGRADY, RIGHT?
No. We're keeping Deng.
BUT…
No "buts." Not with Luol Deng sitting there. Deng's not sexy. Nineteen points per game. Seven rebounds. Nice percentages.
AS OPPOSED TO 24.3, 5.2, 6.3 ASSISTS, 1.9 THREE-POINTERS, AND 1.2 STEALS? THAT'S SEXY!
It's not sexy if he only averages 64 games per season.
McGrady is a great player. I'd be proud to have him on my fantasy team. But as a keeper, he's fantasy pyrite.
When you're putting together a keeper list, the first and foremost thing you should be considering is stability. You need a core you can depend on - to build with. If you want to roll the dice in the draft, go ahead. But you should never, ever harbor perpetually dinged players on your keeper list. Even if it's Tracy McGrady.
Players like McGrady are the ones that produce eye-popping box scores. They can carry your team for weeks at a time but are ultimately high-risk, high reward players. Keep the Dengs and save the risks for the fourth or fifth round of your drafts.
So, let's take a look at some other high profile players that might fool you into hanging onto them in the near future. Just keep in mind that you should only ignore these players if you have strong, stable alternatives.
1. Ron Artest
Even the tips of my fingers feel redundant as I type out the name. Let's keep moving, shall we?
2. Shaquille O’Neal
See Artest, Ron.
3. Rasheed Wallace
See O’Neal, Shaquille.
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March 22: 
4. Marcus Camby
For me, there's no more tantalizing risk in fantasy basketball. He can win a single category for you single-handed. Averages a double-double. And he plays center. But if I owned him on a keeper team, I'd be nervous that I was excited about him being on pace to play 68 games this season - Cal Ripkenesque by Camby standards. He's also 33. But if I didn't have any good keeper alternatives at center, I'd be tempted to roll the dice.
5. Baron Davis
Yes, the three-pointers are down, but the field goal percentage is way up - a career-high 43 percent. The one thing that has remained the same is his penchant for injury.
6. Emeka Okafor
Okafor has quietly stepped up his game this season, increasing his field goal percentage by an insane .13 percent. He’s almost added a full block per game to his already healthy average. The reason it’s been such a quiet improvement is the fact that he’s only played in 56 games.
7. Yao Ming
I've gotten plenty of angry e-mails for pointing out that Yao's propensity for getting hurt before. I guess I just did it again.
8. Lamar Odom
Odom’s the kind of player that I personally love. He contributes in atypical ways for someone who’s technically a power forward. Every year, I take him in the fourth round of a draft. And every year, I get burned.
9. Chris Webber
His brief renaissance was inspirational to Webber fans around the world. Unfortunately, that’s a pretty small group. It’s nice that he may have found a nice niche for his still considerable talents, but Webber can’t escape the fact that he’s got about a third of a knee left and is a major defensive liability.
10. Ray Allen
Even with the surgery, he's still a top 25 player. Just don't think he's top 10 at this point. Career-wise, his value has peaked.
11. Al Jefferson
I really hope that Jefferson has put his ankle problems behind him on a permanent basis. He’s been one of the most pleasant surprises in fantasy this year. Not on a talent-wise basis – just on a health basis. This is only his third year, so it’s a bit premature to label him as injury prone. I’m just saying to keep it in mind.
12. Josh Howard
Year in, year out, Howard is one of my most frequently owned players. Now that he’s an All-Star, I won’t be able to steal him in the sixth round anymore. Howard’s one of those players who always seem to be nursing an injury. But in Howard’s case, his upside is so great that I actually would probably ignore my better instincts and keep him. And I usually do well when I don’t listen to myself.
13. Jermaine O’Neal
He’s having one of his healthier seasons and may still not crack 70 games. He always seems to be underrated in drafts, which is the best reason to not keep him and just wait until the second round sometime next October.
John Cregan is a fantasy expert for www.TalentedMrRoto.com, which features free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. It was nominated for four FSTA awards, including best site. Contact him at g5yp@TalentedMrRoto.com.
The views expressed by www.TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
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