"Playing for Keeps" will provide fantasy hoops advice from a keeper league perspective each week.

The End Of The Line

This past Monday, I hosted my Los Angeles auction keeper league's draft. They’re a cantankerous group, that’s all I can say. Next year, I’m bringing chocolate chip cookies with ground lithium.

In terms of competitiveness, it’s a fine league. It's a league that has reached a sort of parity in the past year. Based on everyone's keeper lists (you can keep five), I really thought going into the draft that at least half of the teams had a chance at winning this year.

What's your long-term outlook for a keeper propsect in Rajon Rondo? (Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images)

For me, I was having palpitations. Sure, I had a shot this year, but the future was bleak. Choices I had made in the past that had once seemed so sound were about to come back to haunt me. It’s what Art History majors must feel like during their senior year of college.

You see, I knew this was the last year I was going to have the services of two players I signed years ago to cheap, long-term contracts. That's an affliction that every keeper owner has to deal with, but when the two players are Dwyane Wade and Andrei Kirilenko, it makes you worry a bit about what the future doth portend. Or, at least it should do something like that.

The past couple of years, I eschewed drafting cheap youngsters, knowing I already had several very good players locked in cheap long-term contracts (I also have Chris Bosh, but I just re-upped him for three more years – pre-Plantar Fascitis). I didn’t want to waste the bench space on promising rookies that were going to have little to no fantasy impact until, say, St. Patrick’s Day.

But after this year, my Glorious Five-Year Plan will wave goodbye to four of my five current keepers - keepers that had served me well…

Dwyane Wade
Andrei Kirilenko
Gilbert Arenas
Mike James

Okay, now that he’s out of Toronto, losing Mike James probably won’t hurt so much. But when you see other owners with their $9 Chris Pauls (the salary cap is $150) and $4 Josh Smiths, it causes the slightest twinge of self-flagellation.

I wanted to do what the best franchises do – contend while rebuilding from within. I wanted to draft 2-4 players that were either rookies, had injury histories, or had been performing far beneath their suspected ceilings. They had to be worth a roster spot by Christmas…and I didn’t want to pay more than $2 for any of them.

A Special Two-Part Investigative Series
This is going to have to be a two-parter. This week, I’ll discuss where I’m targeting rookies for keeper purposes. Next week, we’ll discuss injury risks and underperformers.

On To The Rookies

I’ve got a column floating around somewhere on this year’s top fantasy rookies. It’s a perennially underwritten column because there are so few rookies actually worth owning come Halloween of their rookie year. But I’ll quickly recap this year’s rookie crop for you from a post preseason perspective…

1. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers
Jarrett Jack’s solid preseason might push Roy to playing more at shooting guard, but he’ll still get a lot of what a lot of people annoyingly refer to as “burn” this year – more than anyone else on this list. He’s already over-hyped, due to Chris Paul’s shocking and sudden rise to fantasy prominence. Call it “The Paul Effect.” Everyone’s going to want a rookie point guard this year. A rookie guard with lots of “burn.” Mad amounts of “burn.” Third degree “burn.” I’ll stop now…

He’s going to cost more than $1 - $2. I’m thinking more like $8 - $10.

2. Randy Foye, Minnesota Timberwolves
“The Next Dwyane Wade” comparison is eventually going to become as hackneyed as “The Next Bob Dylan.” Although these days, “The Next Bob Dylan” is most likely a Starbucks Barista in his mid-fifties. Anyway, he’s been over-hyped as well. He’s going to be a fine fantasy contributor, but for now, he’ll be coming off the bench. Coach Casey, is Trenton Hassell really going to help fantasy owners? I think not.

Isn't it frustrating when NBA coaches use of arcane terms such as “Defense” and “Team Chemistry”? Gah...

Foye will probably go from $5 - $8.

3. Tyrus Thomas, Chicago Bulls
Now, Thomas is facing an overpopulated Chicago frontcourt, but there will probably be a point this year when P.J. Brown finally collapses into ectoplasmic dust. When that happens, there will be tributes, and Tyrus Thomas will go bonkers. Not Chris Paul bonkers, but bonkers nonetheless.

In most leagues, he could probably be had for $1 - $2 at this point. However, there are four Chicagoans in this league. Nasty, stubborn Chicagoans, whose main redeeming feature happens to be not being Philadelphians.

As a result, Tyrus Thomas will go somewhere from $4 - $20. I mean it. They get a bit irrational about the whole thing.

3. Adam Morrison, Carolina Gentlemen
(Doesn’t that sound better? It has a nice ABAish ring to it)

Now here’s a lot of hype. And it is nice to have a weeper in your imaginary locker room. He’ll kind of smooth out Rasheed.

Man, can he score. But he can’t do anything else. Morrison is going to fool a lot of owners into reaching for him too early because of the points per game – but he’s going to be a two-trick pony for the foreseeable future.

I’m thinking $3 - $10. $12 if he shaves.

4. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors
Now, here’s a number one pick that couldn’t be more under-hyped. Call this “The Darko Effect.” He’s actually shown a good deal of offensive flash this preseason. If he can learn how to stay out of foul trouble, he’ll work his way up very quickly in the Raptors’ rotation. Eventually, he should form a nice inside-outside combination with Chris Bosh (I just lit a candle for his left heel, by the way). Bargnani will give a good deal of what I call “funky production”: a center that will give you blocks and threes.

He’s definitely on the radar for $1 - $2.

5. Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies
He’s had the best preseason of any of the rookies. When Mike Miller comes back, it’ll cut into Gay’s court time, but he’ll be a fantasy contributor in deep leagues from the first tip-off of the season. He’s also got multi-positional eligibility in most leagues, which is one of my top “likes” in any fantasy player (along with “good listener”).

He’ll have ups and downs, but I think that by mid-season, Gay should be definitely worth $1 - $6, which is what I have marked down for.

6. Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
A lot of scouts are feeling smug right about now. I did a good deal of research on the loveably diminutive Rondo before this year’s NBA Draft. The general impression: a pure point guard with lots of energy that likes to penetrate the lane, but a guy that can’t shoot. According to what I read, I was thinking he’d lose nine out of 10 games of “Horse” to T.J. Ford.

Well, if you follow this NBA stuff, you’ll know that he’s had a stupefying, dazzling preseason. It’s like when your wife makes you watch some mid-summer replacement called “Deal or No Deal” that you think should be cancelled by 8:06 P.M…and now Howie Mandel is the new Jeff Probst.

He’ll go for a buck.

Lightning Round

7. J.J. Redick, Orlando Magic
He was hurt all preseason…so he’s going to be lurking late in drafts. I’m personally not that high on shooting guards, but he’s a definite last round/first week waiver wire-type sleeper.

8. Shelden Williams, Atlanta Hawks
Yes, he had a bad summer league, but he’s a high draft pick for a team that needs a true power forward. For someone without a lot of upside, he’s got a good deal of upside. Does that make sense? It does to Billy Knight.

9. Ronnie Brewer, Utah Jazz
The man is a rookie. A rookie that plays for Jerry Sloan. Next…

10. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
He’s hurt, and he’s got seven mediocre big men ahead of him in the Blazers' rotation. See you in 2008.

John Cregan is a fantasy expert for www.TalentedMrRoto.com, which features free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. It was nominated for four FSTA awards, including best site. Contact him at g5yp@TalentedMrRoto.com.

The views expressed by www.TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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