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By Andy Behrens, www.TalentedMrRoto.com

Strategy and weekly expert picks for the Pick One Challenge fantasy game

Maybe the only thing worse than having Kobe Bryant score a mere 22 Pick One points for me on Christmas was watching him more than triple that output four days later, notching 67 total points against the user-friendly Bobcats. You really can’t afford to have a guy score almost 17 points below his season average very often and expect to remain among the Pick One leaders.

Make no mistake, though. I’m still nipping at the statistical/virtual heels of those leaders. Entering Sunday’s games, my entry’s overall rank was 371. Not too shabby, but not yet where the Boneless Squabs would like to be. And how do the Squabs intend to reach the apex of the global Pick One community? By continuing to pound the Nuggets, Suns, Warriors, Wizards, and Raptors - that’s how. Those teams are among the most generous, stat-wise, to their opponents.

Here’s a look at the teams allowing the most Pick One points per game so far, updated through December 29:

It’s a bit of a surprise to see the suddenly Czar-less Grizzlies yielding so many stats. They allowed fewer points per game (88.5) than any team in the NBA last season. Clearly, they were no good at defending opponents who use that nettlesome new synthetic basketball.

The Suns are kind of a bizarre team. Nobody in the NBA gives up unassisted baskets at the rate they do. They’re allowing 104.0 points per game, the fourth highest total in the league, yet only 18.5 assists, the fifth lowest total. The numbers were similar last year, too, as they allowed 102.8 points per game and only 18.9 assists. They don’t allow an especially high number of free throw attempts. What they do allow, however, are shots from the field - and lots of ‘em. They’re allowing 88.3 field goal attempts per game, the highest total in the league by a wide margin. Last season, they permitted 87.1 shots per night, easily the most in the NBA. Teams don’t shoot an unusually high percentage against them - they’re holding opponents to a respectable 45.4 field goal percentage this year. Like I’ve already said, kind of bizarre. They seem to encourage unassisted baskets. Thus, I really like starting swing players against them (see below).

Now let’s have a look at the stingiest NBA defenses in terms of Pick One points allowed:

No great shocks here, really. Note that the difference between the most user-friendly defense, Golden State, and the least user-friendly, Houston, is almost 30 Pick One points per game. Distribute those 30 points unevenly across a seven or eight-man rotation, and you’ll see how advantageous it is to pick on teams like Boston, Seattle, and their ilk whenever possible.

Speaking of that ilk…

Monday, January 1 - Brandon Roy vs. Boston
The first-year star is back from that lengthy injury-related sabbatical, and he’s posting very useful fantasy lines. There are only two games on Monday, and I was determined to begin my week with a rookie. It was either Roy or Randy Foye, who has a pretty tempting start at Charlotte.

Tuesday, January 2 - Allen Iverson vs. Philadelphia
Just can’t pass this one up. Maybe Iverson will gag against his old team, like when Michael Jordan faced the Bulls for the first time as a Wizard and turned the ball over on seemingly every possession. But somehow I don’t think AI will be feeling quite as humble as MJ must have been. I think, in fact, that he’ll be royally, blindingly ticked off. Woe unto you, Willie Green (or Andre Miller, or whoever guards Iverson).

Wednesday, January 3 - Tracy McGrady vs. Seattle
As has happened on several other occasions this season, I’ll probably have to substitute for McGrady when it’s announced he’ll sit with some odd spasm or affliction. But we’ll just pencil him in here for the heck of it. As long as Yao Ming (knee) is out, McGrady will be a great start. When he plays. Though he often won’t.

Thursday, January 4 - Rasheed Wallace vs. New Orleans
There are only three games on Thursday, and they all seem to involve quality defensive teams. The Hornets are (barely) on that list of the league’s stingiest. But I really think their opponents are going to enjoy the effect of the absences of Chris Paul (ankle), who is expected to miss the next month, David West (elbow), and Peja Stojakovic (back). I’d originally wanted Chauncey Billups here, but he’s about to miss two weeks with a calf injury. So Wallace it is.

Friday, January 5 - Larry Hughes at Milwaukee
Last week, Hughes put up 26 points in a win over Milwaukee. I was very tempted to start LeBron James here - it seems like a near-certain triple-double - but I’m trying to save a few aces for the second half of the season. Hughes should be a safe play against the Bucks.

Saturday, January 6 - Mehmet Okur at Denver
Okur has been fantastically consistent for fantasy owners, reaching double-digits in scoring in 13 of 14 December games. He’s averaging 16.2 points and 7.7 boards per game and, of course, Denver is Denver. So this should be a pretty fair start for Mehmet. Saturday’s Sonics-Warriors tilt should also be a bottomless bowl of fantasy goodness, too.

Sunday, January 7 - Mickael Pietrus at Phoenix
This guy is only owned in 20.6 percent of Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner leagues, which is insane. You can’t use 14.5 points per game, 5.4 rebounds, 0.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks from a player who qualifies at guard and forward? No? Really? Really?

Good luck and a very happy new year, pickers.

Andy Behrens is a fantasy expert for www.TalentedMrRoto.com, which features free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. It was nominated for four FSTA awards, including best site. Contact him at andy@TalentedMrRoto.com.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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