By Andre' Snellings, RotoWire.com

Playoffs and Lottery don't mix

The Celtics beat the Sonics by 29 points Wednesday night, 111 - 82. The starters all finished their nights very early, with the Sonics' starters averaging 27 minutes and the Celtics' starters averaging only 22 minutes played in the game. Consequently, none of the players on either team lived up to their fantasy potential on the night. Meanwhile, the Knicks and Heat played a hard-fought 91 - 88 game in which 10 players played 33 or more minutes and thus hit their fantasy numbers.

As I have pointed out before, at this time of year the great teams are revving up for the post-season and the poor teams are preparing for the lottery, and the disparity between the caliber of play between the haves and the have-nots will only continue to get larger over the next month. In last week's article I suggested that it is safer for the NBASE owner to mainly buy players from good teams, but upon further reflection that isn't necessarily true. Instead, you almost have to look at up-coming schedules and buy players from teams that will play other teams of similar quality. Buy players from good teams if they have multiple upcoming games against other good teams, and likewise pick up players from poor teams if they will be playing other poor teams. But avoid all players in matchups of great teams against poor teams, because it is too likely that these games could be over by the half.

Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers

As always, I have compiled a list of lower-priced players that are producing similar NBASE points to the big sticker players. This week, LeBron James and Chris Paul both produced at such a high level that there was no one lower priced player that could match them. On the other hand, both James and Paul have price tags so high that it was easy to come up with two-player combos that out-produced them at a lower price tag. This week, the average cost of the10 highest priced players is $87.60, while the average cost of the lower-priced players (even including the sums of the two players that add up to James and Paul) is $43.00.

Prospecting: Back-to-backs

I told you in last week's Hoops Market that I was going to be out of internet access for much of the week, and I dreaded the inevitable loss of momentum (and more importantly funds) that usually accompany such an absence. Well, I'm back from my trip and I return to a team that has both a higher ranking and more money than I had before I left. How did I do that? By using a combination of weekly outlooks and back-to-backs. I made sure that all of the players on my roster played at least three games during the five days that I was absent, ensuring that none of them should experience a big price drop over that period. Then, since I was returning on Sunday I looked at the teams that had Sunday/Monday back-to-back games (Spurs and Sixers). Because we have established that players really peak in value on the first day of their back-to-back games, I filled my team with Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Andre Iguodala. All four of them reached relative maxima in price on Sunday, which ensured that I wasn't traumatized when I returned on Sunday and looked at my team.

Back-to-back schedule:

Friday/Saturday: Celtics, Pacers, Clippers, Timberwolves, Magic, 76ers, Spurs, Jazz

Saturday/Sunday: Kings

Sunday/Monday: Hawks, Bobcats, Cavaliers, Hornets, Knicks, Raptors

Monday/Tuesday: Celtics, Bulls

Tuesday/Wednesday: Nuggets, Pistons, Warriors, Rockets, Heat, Nets, Suns

Wednesday/Thursday: none

Beating the Market: the week ahead

Weekly prospectors (3/14 - 3/20): The Celtics are the prize this week with five games, which means that their player price tags should stay high all week. Also keep in mind that they will be playing five games against strong competition, which should mean closer games and more opportunity for production from their primary players. There are 17 other teams with four games as part of this busy schedule, but the Bucks, Knicks and Trailblazers only have two games which makes them the teams whose players you should avoid this week.

For the first half-week (3/14 - 3/17), there are 11 teams with three games (Hawks, Celtics, Bobcats, Pacers, Clippers, Timberwolves, Hornets, Magic, Spurs, Raptors, Jazz) while five teams have only one game (Warriors, Bucks, Nets, Suns, Trailblazers).

For the second half week (3/17 - 3/20), there are two teams with three games (Celtics, Bulls) while six teams have only one game (Bucks, Knicks, 76ers, Trailblazers, Kings, Supersonics).

Daily Prospectors: For those that still plan their week around sparsely scheduled days, there is only one such game this week.

Thursday (3/20) three games: Spurs/Bulls, Celtics/Mavericks, Lakers/Jazz

Value stocks

The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.

Caron Butler ($52.07): Butler may return this week from the hip injury that has sidelined him for the past 19 games. He may be eased back into the lineup at first to test the strength in his torn hip labrum, but if/when he returns to full speed he is a high-priced talent.

Gerald Wallace ($49.21): Wallace returned from a concussion on Wednesday night and scored 14 points with five boards in 22 minutes off the bench. He is being slowly worked back into the line-up, but the solid production on Wednesday indicates that he is likely to be back in the starting line-up sooner rather than later.

Randy Foye ($31.18): Sebastian Telfair hurt his ankle two games ago and is expected to be out for a week. This has opened up room for Foye to reassert himself as the starting lead guard, and he has responded by averaging 17.5 points, 7.0 assists and 5.5 boards per over the two games that Telfair has been out.

Ricky Davis ($26.82): Davis has scored 27 points in three consecutive games, and is clearly the focal point of the Heat offense now that Dwyane Wade is out.

Charlie Villanueva ($24.12): Villanueva is playing like a superstar of late, averaging 24.6 points and 9.6 boards per over his last five games.

Steve Blake (11.79): Blake has averaged 13.5 points, 7.0 assists, and 2.8 boards in 35 minutes per over his last four games.

Rasho Nesterovic ($6.38): Nesterovic has taken advantage of the absence of Chris Bosh to average 13.2 points and 7.6 boards per over his last five games.

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