By Andre' Snellings, RotoWire.com

I love this game!

Can I take a step back from NBASE for a minute and just bask in how much I love the NBA, and just how much I am enjoying this season? When I was a kid in the mid-80s, the NBA seemed to be full of super teams. The Showtime Lakers and Big Three Celtics were the two legendary teams, but there were several others that were almost as strong. The Sixers had Dr. J and Moses Malone, the Rockets had the Twin Towers of Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson, and the Bad Boy Pistons were led by Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. And there was an entire new generation of stars on the rise led by Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone and Patrick Ewing that seemed ready to take over and ensure this basketball golden age continued.

But it didn’t. By the mid-90s, the NBA seemed to be pretty much Michael Jordan and a recycling cast of less memorable teams. And when Jordan retired there was a bit of a charisma vacuum that really wasn’t filled for years. The Shaq/Kobe Lakers and the Tim Duncan Spurs have been great teams, but the lack of other great teams to test them in the playoffs has robbed their successes of glory.

Until this season. This year, I am starting to feel like a kid again, as super-teams are popping up everywhere. It began in the offseason with the Spurs, Suns, and Mavericks as a trifecta of royalty atop the league. Then, the Celtics traded for Kevin Garnett after already adding Ray Allen, and suddenly there was a legitimate contender in the East. Now, Pau Gasol joins Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum, and the Lakers are back in the mix. LeBron James and Dwight Howard are two of the most gifted physical specimens that the NBA has ever seen, and suddenly they are growing up and making their teams contenders. Chris Paul and Deron Williams are coming of age and leading their squads to the top with dominant point-guard play, while the Pistons continue to illustrate that the power of a cohesive team can beat any individual superstar. Even the bad teams are interesting, as the last-place Heat just traded one of the best big-men in history in Shaquille O’Neal and now feature Shawn Marion with Dwyane Wade in what promises to be one of the most athletic tandems in the league. There are so many storylines, so much potential for budding rivalries, and with all of the quality at the top there is FINALLY the potential for some true legends to be formed in the playoffs and championship. It’s so cool that I almost can’t stand it, and I actively look forward to seeing how the rest of this year plays out.

Is Kobe Bryant worth the $115 price tag?
(Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers

The NBASE system epitomizes the old Janet Jackson song, “What have you done for me lately?” Unlike in standard draft-based fantasy leagues, in the NBASE it’s much more important to catch a hot player and ride that production wave than it is to tough out a cold stretch just because you expect the player to be good in the long run. A player’s production is much more important than his name in this system, his recent production is more important than his year-long production, and getting similar production at a lower price is most important of all.

So, with that in mind, here is a list of several moderately valued players that have produced at superstar level over the last week. These players have all either outscored or produced comparable numbers to the corresponding high-priced players in parentheses next to their names. Keep these players in mind when planning out your roster for the next week or two.

Prospecting: Strength of Schedule

Because point-production is so important at this point in the season, “prospecting” is about maximizing that production as much as it is about maximizing profits. I write in some of the other sections about players that have been hot for the previous week, or players that have lots of upcoming games, but there’s another angle to look at when trying to estimate upcoming production: strength of schedule. It stands to reason that players that will face good defenses or teams that slow the game down generally have less likelihood of producing great fantasy games than do players facing friendly defenses or fast-paced teams. There are exceptions to this rule, but when making predictions the best that any of us can do is play the odds. So, let’s go about stacking the deck in our favor.

There are five teams in the NBA that are currently allowing fewer than 95 ppg to their opposition, and there are six teams that are currently giving up more than 103 ppg to their opponents. NBASE owners looking to maximize their short-term team potential should limit their games against, in order, the Celtics (88.8 ppg), the Pistons (89.9 ppg), the Spurs (91.5 ppg), the Rockets (93.4 ppg) and the Hornets (93.8 ppg) while simultaneously stockpiling games against the Warriors (107.1 ppg), the Pacers (105.7 ppg), the Grizzlies (105.5 ppg), the Sonics (104.2 ppg), the Nuggets (103.9 ppg), and the Suns (103.3 ppg).

So, let’s look at the upcoming games for the week of 2/8/08 until 2/14/08 to determine what teams have good/bad levels of opposing defense. Hard defenses (sell): The Pacers, Knicks, Trailblazers and Hawks all have two games against difficult defenses this week. Easy defenses (buy): The Wizards have three games against easy-to-score-on defenses this week, while the Kings, Suns, and Mavericks all have two such games. This information is not meant as a hard and fast rule to buy or sell, but it’s something to keep in mind. For instance, if you’re deciding between similar caliber/priced players such as Antawn Jamison and Joe Johnson, perhaps that Jamison plays against three easy defenses while Johnson has to face two difficult defenses is enough to sway you.

Beating the Market: the week ahead

Weekly prospectors (2/8 – 2/14): The Mavericks have five games this week, putting them on the top of the “add” list. There are 17 other teams with four games, as there are many games scheduled in the week leading up to the All-Star break. The Sonics only have two games, though, making them a definite “sell”.

Semi-weekly prospectors: For the first half-week (2/8 – 2/11), there are nine teams (Bobcats, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Clippers, Lakers, Trailblazers, Spurs, Raptors, Wizards) with three games and five (Bulls, Pacers, Heat, Hornets, Supersonics) with only one game.

  • The teams with three games in four nights ending 2/11 include impact players such as LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Bosh. There are also plenty of promising second-tier players in this group, including Emeka Okafor, Jason Richardson, Chris Kaman, Brandon Roy, Jose Calderon, Manu Ginobili, and Antawn Jamison.
  • The teams with only one game include impact guys Chris Paul, Dwyane Wade and now Shawn Marion. The Pacers have recently become a target for moderate-priced producers, but this is not the week to go with them, either.
For the second half-week (2/11 – 2/14), only the Mavericks have three games while three teams (Knicks, Supersonics, Jazz) only have one game.
  • The Mavericks should have already had their prices increase during the first half-week, but they still make nice production plays with another three games in four nights starting on Monday.
  • The Knicks, Jazz, and Supersonics all play their only game in this period on Wednesday, when almost every team in the NBA (28 out of 30) plays. Because of this there is no real benefit to holding any of these players during this stretch, as they are likely to be outproduced in both price and output by players on teams with more games.
Daily Prospectors: For those that still plan their week around sparsely scheduled days, there is only one such day this week: Valentine’s Day. Thursday is also the last day with games before the All Star Break, which means that you can start players on that night without worrying as much about selling them at the open of the NBASE on Friday morning to pick up new players.
  • Thursday (2/14) two games: Heat/Bulls, Mavericks/Suns
Value stocks

The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.

Rajon Rondo ($30.34): Rondo has really stepped up his game in the last week as he has gotten healthy, which has corresponded to the time period with Kevin Garnett out and both Paul Pierce and Ray Allen taking turns with illness and nagging injuries. This has allowed Rondo to step forward and take a larger chunk of the offense, which led to him being one of the higher scorers in the NBASE system over the last week.

Chris Wilcox ($18.62): After a cold few weeks, Wilcox has returned to health and strong production over the last week and is again the big man to own in the Sonics frontcourt. Wilcox has averaged almost 17 points and nine boards over his last four games.

Larry Hughes ($14.78): Hughes has repeatedly let down his fantasy owners for the past few years since he has been in Cleveland, but in the NBASE we are not concerned much with the distant past or distant future. It is all about the immediate vicinity, and in the recent past Hughes has been putting it together to the tune of 19 points, four boards, four assists and two steals per in the last week.

Jarrett Jack ($14.56): Jack is back in starting line-up for the Blazers for the next five games with James Jones out, and he has been playing well recently anyway. Jack has shown in the past that he has solid 15-point/five-assist ability on a nightly basis, so at this price he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Boris Diaw ($14.44): Diaw could be one of the big winners in the huge Suns/Heat trade, because his size/skills were a bit redundant with Marion. With Marion gone, Diaw now has a monopoly on the tweener SF/PF mix in the Suns line-up. And since new Sun Shaquille O’Neal is often injured, Diaw looks to be in line for more minutes.

Andray Blatche ($13.17): Caron Butler’s hip injury opened space for him to move back into the starting line-up. He has been producing even off the bench as well, and is well-served by the versatility that allows him to play all three of the frontcourt positions. Butler is still struggling with the hip, and with the All-Star break coming next week, it’s conceivable that Butler may not hurry back into the lineup until he’s at full strength, which would open more space for Blatche.

Jose Juan Barea ($5.17): Barea has started the last two games for the Mavericks so that Jason Terry can return to his role off the bench. Eventually Devin Harris will return and bump Barea back to the bench, but in the meantime Barea is the starting point guard in a good Mavericks offense.