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By Will Brinson, www.TalentedMrRoto.com

Expert tips on the art of trading and making the deal

[On The] Block Party

To paraphrase Andy from The Office, “the majority of my success in life, and with the women-folk, comes from my ability to wear people down.” Now, I may or may not, in the course of playing in a couple dozen fantasy leagues a year, have occasionally been known as “that guy” who will offer out an abundance of trades—I don’t do it expecting to sucker anyone every time, but you can get a pretty good idea of what other owners are interested in based on their response.

However, this tactic can oftentimes be considered obnoxious and serve to alienate other owners from wanting to deal with you, along with making people think you’re trigger happy. The evolution of the league “Trading Block”—virtually every format has them nowadays—has provided an entirely different outlet for drawing in potential trading partners while allowing you, the owner avidly seeking a trade, to find out exactly what your opponents don’t really want to tell you.

Reading the Mark

See, the Trading Block serves the same purpose as “tells” do in poker - you can identify basic trading characteristics of your fellow owners by seeing who they throw out there. There are three general categories that people will usually fall in. First, there’s the owner you avoid—they like to offer up lesser performing players and “scrubs” in an attempt to pull off a two-fer-one: no thank you, unless any of their players fit in section B. Which is to say, the owner throws out a one-of-the-rest-is-not-like-the-others type of list, where you just can’t believe that they would categorize this guy (like an Iguodala, perhaps) with the rest of the people he listed (Matt Barnes, Sebastian Telfair, etc). Clearly this owner doesn’t believe in Iggy and is more than willing to part with him for whatever reason, at under market value. And finally, there’s the “Cowbell” owner - the guy (or girl) just looking for some action. This person might throw out a “just trying to mix it up” and include three-quarters of their team, studs be darned. This owner is for, whatever reason, either a trading junkie or clearly unsatisfied with the current makeup of their team. Either way, they want to shake something up, which is where you pounce.

The Ol’ Bait and Switch

Dangle Gilbert Arenas (or your superstar) out there and watch the trade waters open like the Red Sea with offers. (Layne Murdoch/NBAE/Getty Images)

I’ve heard the TMR himself discuss the notion that nobody on your team should ever be off limits for trading. And he’s dead on. At least in terms of what the public perception around your league should be. The trading deadline is secretly drawing nearer, so it’s not going to cut it to offer up the Matt Barnes-es (value fading quickly) and Andrei Kirilenkos (disgruntled superstar bust) because everybody else already knows you want to get rid of them. Instead, take your superstars that are over performing their preseason value—who you secretly know are off limits, like Gilbert Arenas or Caron Butler—and put them on the block. Now you’re probably wondering, “Why the [mess] would I do that? I have no interest at all in trading my super-studly Wizard tandem!!” But that’s okay—you don’t have to. What you do have to do is garner the attention of owners in your league who might not feel content with their team.

Trust me, you put ol' Agent Zero on the block and other greedy owners are going to try and pounce all over you. And you can handle the ensuing offers one of two ways. First off though, never act like someone has insulted you with a deal—it’s that whole alienation thing again, and you can always glean an important piece of knowledge about that person from every crummy offer. Back to how to handle the offers though—it’s unlikely that you’re going to get a great deal that you just can’t pass up, but let’s say that the other owner gives you a decent, not great, but decent offer where Al Jefferson is his throw-in/ “second” player. You like Al Jefferson, and why not. In fact, you’d like to have him on your team, right? Assuming you have a need for boards, blocks and field goal percentages, then of course you would. Add in the fact that Jefferson isn’t losing his starting job anytime soon and has been red hot lately makes him a very worthy target for your squad. And we’ll also assume this potential trading partner has an idea of what you’re looking for, or else he wouldn’t be talking with you, right?

You’re now with the most important knowledge of all—that the other owner not only somewhat undervalues Baby Al, but that he is also more than willing to part with him. First, examine who else he offered with Jefferson to see just how much he values him; if it’s Kobe and AJ for Gilbert, you’re either pulling the trigger or at least very intrigued. You can see that he thinks the Celtics forward is really nothing more than a slight upgrade/deal sweetener. Now if your trading cohort offers a lesser guard (like Tony Parker) with Jefferson, you’re obviously not taking that deal. What you are going to do is flip the switch by countering with your Rafer Alston (who has been murdering your field goal percentage, and only really padding your already sick three pointers and steals) for his Jefferson, citing “Rafer gives you the same stats as Gilbert—three’s, steals and assists—and neither of us has to sacrifice our stud.” All of a sudden, this deal seems very logical to him (especially since you’ve used the context of “we” and “sacrifice”), so he pulls the trigger. You make out like a bandit by saving your percentages and getting that big man you so sorely needed for your late season run to the top.

Now, you could certainly justify that Al Jefferson for Rafer Alston isn’t the biggest rip off in the entire world—and I wouldn’t question your thought process. We just wanted to explore a hypothetical here, and exactly what level of GTR that you can pull off is up to your negotiating skills and willingness to counter/re-counter at that point. But by correctly being able to analyze your opponent’s public outpouring of his own team’s perception, you’ve set yourself up for success.

Theft of the Week

Our TOW comes directly from the TMR Message Boards this week and naturally includes a little bit of self-indulgence, but mainly includes our good friend Randy Johnson (no, not the pitcher—his words, not mine) doing a darn fine job of identifying how a 2007 breakout candidate’s value was about to take a huge dive and pawn him off for an injured superstar that is on his way back—in other words, the kind of trade that wins championships. But I’ll let Randy fill you in on what went down:

“Hi Will,
Lamar Odom was brought to my attention in a Yahoo roto league when I was offered Odom for Corey Maggette. I queried the TMR message board and C-dub said to do it so I proceeded. Subsequently, the Golden State/Indiana trade went down. After, reading your instant fantasy analysis on TMR, I lamented my luck at having picked up Matt Barnes off the waiver wire in a H2H league on Jan 4th and decided to try to deal him to the manager who had Odom and needed treys. I was dubious of it happening because the manager had not been active but to my surprise, he agreed.”

What Randy did is a prime example of why taking the initiative to examine a struggling owner’s team and at least shoot him an offer or two (just because it looks dead, don’t mean it is dead, folks) to gauge his activity and/or interest. Congrats to Randy for winning the Theft of the Week and thanks to all the excellent submissions for TOW consideration.

Will Brinson is a fantasy expert for www.TalentedMrRoto.com, which features free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. It was nominated for four FSTA awards, including best site. Contact him at willbrinson@TalentedMrRoto.com.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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