Expert tips on the art of trading and making the deal

Samuel Dalembert just appeared on waivers? It's your lucky day. (Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images)

With about a dozen days left in 2006, it is only natural to reflect on this past year and to start thinking about the upcoming one. Surely, 2007 holds a bright future for your fantasy basketball team, which is probably well on its way to winning the league title by now. What’s that you say? Your team did not get off to the fast start you predicted? Your computer auto-drafted a bunch of injured stiffs? Your dog ate your box scores? Whatever your excuse, if you’ve got a sinking feeling about your team’s future, there’s still plenty of time to right the ship. I’ve been saying “it’s early” for about two months now. It is still early, right? All NBA teams have played about 20 games, or a quarter of their regular season schedule. On second thought, maybe it’s not quite so early anymore. But it is about time for you to take charge of your own future and fix what’s broke with your team.

Winners Never Quit …

But where to begin? How do you dig out of a hole when your team is underachieving? The road to enlightenment begins with self-awareness. You have to be able to admit that your team stinks, and you have to sincerely want to improve. Too many owners get easily distracted or just plain quit when the going gets tough. I don’t care whether you are playing for fun or for money, you need to have the integrity to keep on competing, even if you might not make the playoffs or win the league. If you are in a head-to-head league, your team’s performance directly affects the outcome of the league, so suck it up and have some pride, man.

Assuming you have the will to win, or at least the will not to stink so badly, how can you “trade up” to improve your team? Conventional wisdom may not have served you well to this point, so you might need to be unconventional, go against the grain, and take some calculated risks. Try to figure out your relative strengths and weaknesses by category. More importantly, calculate where you have the most room for improvement. In a Rotisserie-style league, you might be dead last in three-point field goals, but if it is a tight category you might find yourself a Raja Bell away from moving up several points in the standings. In that case, you should be willing to trade away a more well-rounded player for a specialist that can give you a big boost in one category. (Typically, this strategy works best with blocks and three-pointers where there are fewer true difference makers.)

… But There’s No Shame In Punting

On the other hand, you might determine that you are so far removed from competing in a category that you should focus your efforts elsewhere. In football parlance, it is fourth and twenty-four and time to punt. Punting a category should only be done after careful consideration. You can sometimes punt one category and still win, but it is very hard to be competitive if you relegate yourself to the basement in two or more categories. But done well, punting can pump life into your fantasy roster. Deciding what to punt depends on your particular team, but generally speaking, it is easiest to punt points and percentage categories. Why? Because scorers are easy to trade and poor shooters are easier to acquire. For example, you might decide to trade away Ben Gordon and his 18.3 points per game and acquire Shane Battier, whose 8.7 points and 65.2 free throw percentage scares away most teams, despite his solid contributions, including 1.8 three-pointers, 4.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.8 blocks over his past 10 games. Or if you punt field goal percentage, it frees you to trade for poor shooting guys like Ron Artest, Mike Bibby and Rafer Alston, who can help your team in other areas. Another aspect of punting is to persuade other owners to punt too. Let’s listen in on an attempted punt conversion in progress:

Savvy Trader: “Dude, I’m trying to help you out here. I’ll trade you Tony Parker for Jermaine O’Neal. You’ll gain in the percentage categories, threes, assists, steals and points.”

William Gully (a/k/a “Gully Bill“): “Gee, Savvy, I dunno. O’Neal’s my only shot blocker.”

Savvy Trader: “Exactly my point. He’s not doing you any good in that category anyway. You’re last in blocks with him, so you won't lose any ground in blocks by trading him. Plus, the Spurs are on TV a lot, so you’ll get to watch Parker play more.”

Gully Bill: “I guess you’re right. I love the Spurs. Okay, it’s a deal.”

Back to me now. Okay, you get the idea. The point is that there’s no shame in punting if it’s done strategically. (And, believe it or not, I have used the “TV factor” as a selling point in trades.)

Risky Business: Buying Damaged Goods and Selling Studs

Admittedly, punting is somewhat of a desperation play, but if you’d rather try the “Hail Mary” pass, another approach is to trade for injured players. Again, this is a risky proposition, but if you have the depth, you can buy low on an injured star and hopefully reap the rewards once he returns to full strength. If you can trade for Pau Gasol, who is playing limited minutes since his return, or persuade an owner to accept a discounted offer for Lamar Odom or oft-injured Tracy McGrady, you might come out ahead in the long run. Where do you get the depth to ride out the storm in the meantime? It pays to be a vigilant waiver wire watcher. (See Brian McKitish's column, "Workin' the Wire.") Whether out of impatience, frustration, or just wanting to change things up, owners are always dropping players they shouldn’t. Inexplicably, Samuel Dalembert just showed up on the waiver wire in one of my leagues. Also, try to grab the hot rookie who just exploded for a career high (only because the game went into double overtime and everyone else fouled out), and peddle him before he reverts to mediocrity. Timing is everything when it comes to trading. Make offers to trade away players the night after a big game. Make trade proposals to acquire players after an off night or minor injury. Play up a one-game suspension (like that of Zach Randolph or Stephen Jackson) as evidence of an imminent melt-down.

Another tactic if you have limited assets – one I usually consider only as a last resort – is to sell off your best player(s). While it is not ideal to get quantity over quality, if you are starting guys who just aren't getting playing time, you might be forced to be on the short end of a one-for-two or one-for-three deal. You should only trade a superstar after shopping him around and creating a bidding war. If you’ve got two or three studs and the rest duds, trade each star individually rather than as one big package deal.

If all this risk-taking makes you nervous, remind yourself that playing it safe is what got you into your current predicament. Tell yourself: “Nothing ventured, nothing gained.” Say it with me now: “You’ve got to break a few eggs to make an omelet.” One more time with feeling: “It’s not over till the fat lady sings.” Your turn now: [Insert your favorite sports cliché here.]

Make Every Game Count

For the risk-averse, here’s a less drastic measure that you can use to improve your prospects: Count games. Most of us do this on a weekly basis, but if you study the schedule and calculate the remaining games left in the season for each NBA team, you can pick up “games in hand” via trades. For example, as of December 18, Orlando will have 56 games left and Minnesota will have 61 games left, so if you trade Jameer Nelson (12.8 points per game) for Ricky Davis (14.0) you gain five extra games of stats. While 1.2 points per game doesn't sound like much of a difference, Davis projects to score 137 points more than Nelson given his five extra games. Some leagues have limits on total games played (a rule I detest), so be cautious if you play under those constraints.

Finally, for those in keeper leagues, you need to ask yourself, when is it time to play for next year? I recommend that you check out John Cregan's column, "Playing For Keeps" when making such decisions, but even if this season is a lost cause, there should be trades that you can make to position yourself for a better season in 2007-08.

Theft Of The Week

This week’s winner by unanimous decision is Daniel Veitch from Margaret River, Western Australia, who traded Dwight Howard, David West, Jarrett Jack and a case of Foster’s for Steve Nash, Andrei Kirilenko and Kevin Garnett. (Actually, I made up the part about the beer, but I can’t think of any way to explain this trade unless the other guy was drinking.) Always humble in victory, Daniel proclaimed, “It’s the biggest steal of a deal in the history of Grand Theft Roto. It's a theft-and-a-half!”

Tony Targan is a fantasy expert for www.TalentedMrRoto.com, which features free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. It was nominated for four FSTA awards, including best site. Contact him at targan@TalentedMrRoto.com.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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