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Drive to the FinalsOk, let me have it. I know. Zydrunas Ilgauskas was my pick on Sunday. He, not surprisingly, stunk. Point. Laugh. Get it over with.
Out of the way? In the end, the pick still made sense. My biggest concern was that the Spurs were going to advance to the NBA Finals. In that case, we had used all of their top three players and they are not one of the deepest fantasy squads in the league. And so, I was looking forward. I'm a forward-looking type of fellow.
But, the Spurs lost, we're now doing a little better out West, but we're still going to run into a wall quickly with the players we have available to us there. You have to plan, folks. Or gamble. But this is a thinking man's game.
Before we get to how I'm preparing for the second half of the Drive to the Finals, I want to test something out. Every morning, I grab a cup of oatmeal, turn on my TV, and scan the internet. Sensory overload, but it's a morning ritual. As I'm reading about the Suns victory, in the background I hear the latest news on Barbaro. Suns. Barbaro. Leandro Barbosa. Barbaro. Barbosa. Barbaro. Leandro.
I think we're on to something here, people. I'm not one of those people who goes around penning nicknames. You know the types. Although, when I was in middle school, I was determined to go by Jo Lo. You know, during the big Flo Jo days. I even made my own logo. Amazingly, the name didn't stick. Yeah, I needed more friends.
So, anyway. For the purpose of the column, I will now refer to Leandro Barbosa as "Barbaro." No, he doesn't look like a horse. No, his leg is fine and I wish him no ill will. I just like it.
Let it be done.
Ok, folks. If you've made it this far in the Drive to the Finals playoff fantasy game and you've planned adequately, the toughest part is past. The ultimate goal is to use good players in the Finals. If you've been listening until now, you have a nice player pool to play with.
Although, I personally was a little concerned. Nothing against the Spurs, but their advancement to the Finals could have doomed the Experts. As I aluded to earlier, we used all three of their top players, and they have very little thereafter. Instead, the Mavs advance and we have three adequate players (Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris) from which to choose.
Let's take a look at what we have left:
Eastern Conference - 12 Players
Miami Heat
Dwyane Wade (38.1)
Shaquille O'Neal (30.3)
Antoine Walker (22.4)
Udonis Haslem (19.4)
Jason Williams (15.8)
James Posey (15.6)
Detroit Pistons
Chauncey Billups (28.8)
Richard Hamilton (26.5)
Rasheed Wallace (23.9)
Tayshaun Prince (24.6)
Antonio McDyess (16.7)
Ben Wallace (16.8)
Western Conference - 7 Players
Dallas Mavericks
Jason Terry (25.3)
Jerry Stackhouse (19.2)
Devin Harris (14.9)
Erick Dampier (11.9)
Phoenix Suns
Tim Thomas (23.3)
Raja Bell (21.3)
Leandro "Barbaro" Barbosa (18.2)
Let me tell you what this means. We have five players who average over 15 PRA from the West. Even if we think that the Mavs are going to advance, we will have only three Suns players to choose from. We will need to pick Mavs. Similarly, if we expect the Suns to advance, we have three very good players to choose from. After that, we may want to dip into Tim Thomas and Raja Bell. And BARBARO!
Out East, we're sitting pretty. Six players who average over 15 PRA from each team. This puts us in a very nice position. Since we can expect that we will use up all of our good players out West in the Western Conference Finals, we will need to use most or all players from the East in the NBA Finals.
What that means is that out West we don't need to use any discretion whatsoever. We know which players we are using this round. No one will be spared, including Barbaro. Out East, we need to tread a little more carefully. If we bounce back and forth between the Pistons and Heat and use four players from one team and three from another, we could be left with problems if the NBA FInals goes seven games.
This is why I question Brad Friedman's pick of Tayshaun Prince today. Unless he expects the Heat to advance (he might), it's best to use players from the Heat now and reserve the Pistons for the Finals. In a perfect fantasy world (NBA interests aside), this will be a quick four-game series in the Pistons' favor. That way, no need to change strategies. Pick off Heat players one by one.
Today, I'm picking Antoine Walker. The reason for that is that I want to save my biggest scorers -- Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal -- for home games. Why? Because players produce better at home. The natural assumption is that the percentage of improvement would be the same for a 20 PRA player as a 30 PRA player. I haven't done any studies on this, but if my theory is true then a 10% improvement for each would be two points for the 20 PRA player and three points for the 30 PRA player. Granted, not a huge disparity, but we're trolling for numbers here.
Picture is clarifying, right? In the beginning, we weren't sure where we were heading. Now, the end is near. Everything makes sense. Our preparation is paying off.
