Drive to the Finals Expert Pick: 5/16/08
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By John Schuhmann

Two Game 6s on the slate for Friday. The Celtics (up 3-2) are visiting the Cavs and the Lakers (also up 3-2) are visiting the Jazz.

The home team has won all 10 games in these two series and (going into Thursday night's Hornets-Spurs tilt) 19 of the 20 games in the Conference Semifinals so far.

And it's safe to plan as if the home team will win the remaining games in these series. And since the Cavs and Jazz are facing elimination on Friday, we'll look at those rosters and save our Celtics and Lakers.

So far, we've used LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Wally Szczerbiak off the Cavs and Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur from the Jazz. So, we're looking at our fourth options for each team.

For the Cavs, we have Delonte West with an average of 18.3 PRA in the postseason. For the Jazz, we have Andrei Kirilenko with an average of 16.8 PRA in the postseason.

Before we choose West though, we need to look forward...

If all three of the active series go to Game 7 (I'm writing this before the Spurs and Hornets play Game 6 Thursday night), Celtics-Cavs would be on Sunday and both Western Conference series would be on Monday. So, on Sunday, we'd be choosing either West or one of the Celtics. And since the chances are good that Boston will win Game 7 at home, we'll probably stick to our guns (like we did in the First Round) and take West if we don't take him now. Otherwise, we're looking at Daniel Gibson, who has been struggling.

But on Monday, we'd have a choice of four teams, so using Kirilenko in Game 6 won't hurt us as much. And we can save West for Sunday when he would be needed more.

Of course, we run the risk of the Celtics finally winning a road game and losing out on a decent PRA from West. But those are the chances you need to take in this game. Let's just root, root, root for the home team.

Play Drive to the Finals Now!

Andrei Kirilenko, UTAWhen: Friday, May 16 at 10:30 p.m. ET
Opponent: vs. L.A. Lakers
Pts: 10.9 Reb: 3.4 Ast: 2.5
Playoffs Average PRA: 16.8
Yesterday's Pick: Manu Ginobili, SAS
Expert Pick Playoffs Total: 790
Expert Pick Archive
1. Delonte West, CLE vs. BOS (18.3 PRA)
2. Ronnie Brewer, UTA vs. LAL (14.9 PRA)
3. Daniel Gibson, CLE vs. BOS (13.1 PRA)
One argument for using West is that his postseason PRA average at home (19.8) is higher than on the road (17.2), while Kirilenko's is higher on the road (18.3) than it is at home (15.0). The other reason to use him is the chance that the Celtics finally win a road game and close out the series in Cleveland.

Brewer has been pretty consistent and had his best PRA of the postseason (23) in Game 5 on Wednesday, but Gibson has been bad in Conference Semis (8.8 average, despite a 24 in Game 4).

Friday
August 8
Summer Olympics Begin

Sunday
Sept. 14
WNBA Regular Season Ends

Thursday
Oct. 9
2008 NBA Europe Live Begins

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