Drive to the Finals Expert Pick: 5/5/08
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By John Schuhmann

Monday brings a pair of Game 2s, Hornets-Spurs and Pistons-Magic.

We did good by not selecting any players from these four teams (or any team that advanced) in the First Round. On Saturday, when we had these same two matchups, we selected Dwight Howard, who got us a disappointing (injuries are no excuse!) 20 PRA.

Both the Pistons and Hornets took care of business at home in Game 1 and have a 1-0 series lead. So, we'll certainly hold off on taking someone from their squads. We'll have that opportunity later in the series should they fall behind.

So, we're looking at the Magic and the Spurs. If you've followed basketball for the last 10 years, you know that the Spurs can't be counted out. The Hornets looked pretty good on Saturday, but San Antonio is surely more likely to come back and win its series than the Orlando is.

Still, let's look at our remaining options on both teams. Depth can be a factor as well. Here are the guys we're looking at, with their playoff PRAs, and Game 1 PRAs in parentheses...

MAGIC AVAILABLE OPTIONS
Player Reg. Sea. Playoffs Game 1
Rashard Lewis 26.0 31.0 27
Hedo Turkoglu 30.2 30.6 29
Jameer Nelson 20.0 23.6 17

Next: Keith Bogans (14.0 in playoffs)

SPURS AVAILABLE OPTIONS
Player Reg. Sea. Playoffs Game 1
Tony Parker 28.0 38.8 33
Tim Duncan 33.4 36.0 10
Manu Ginobili 28.8 25.3 32

Next: Michael Finley (10.6 in playoffs)

We've got three options available on each team, so that has me leaning towards the Magic. But the issue is that San Antonio's options are stronger than Orlando's.

But with the Spurs, there's still a decent chance that they're going back to the Finals. And right now, it's just too early to be dipping into that pool.

The only other decision to make is Turkoglu vs. Lewis.

Lewis has a slight edge in playoff PRA, but Turkoglu is probably the safer choice. He'll have the ball in his hands more often and his regular season PRA was more than four points stronger.

Hedo it is.

Play Drive to the Finals Now!

Hedo Turkoglu, ORLWhen: Monday, May 5 at 7 p.m. ET
Opponent: @ Detroit
Pts: 17.8 Reb: 7.7 Ast: 5.2
Playoffs Average PRA: 30.6
Yesterday's Pick: Deron Williams, UTA
Expert Pick Playoffs Total: 465
Expert Pick Archive
1. Rashard Lewis, ORL @ DET (31.0 PRA)
2. Tony Parker, SAS @ NOH (38.8 PRA)
3. Tim Duncan, SAS @ NOH (36.0 PRA)
Dwight Howard's your man if you haven't used him yet. Despite the bruised thumb, he should rebound (literally and figuratively) in Game 2. And I'm not going to call you names if you chose Lewis over Turkoglu. Using one of the Spurs is a risky proposition, but if you believe in the Hornets (and they've yet to give you a reason not to), then Parker should get you a nice number. Just hope the Spurs lose.
Hedo should do you well.
(D. Lippitt/Einstein/NBAE/Getty Images)

Saturday
May 17
WNBA Regular Season Begins

Tuesday
May 20
NBA Draft Lottery

Thursday
June 5
NBA Finals start

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