Drive to the Finals Expert Pick: 5/4/08
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By Ben Zani, www.rotowire.com

Now begins the tricky portion of the Drive to the Finals odyssey. Sunday’s pick depends entirely on one question: How much do you trust the Boston Celtics to take care of business at home?

There’s reason to think that Boston will pull out Sunday’s game. They’ve won all three home games so far. All three of those wins have been by an average of 23 points. Boston was 35-6 at home in the regular season, while the Hawks were 12-29 on the road. Eight seeds have defeated top seeds only twice since the playoffs expanded.

If you think, as we do, that Boston will put down the pesky Hawks on Sunday, then you’ll want to save your Celtics for later on in the playoffs. We’ve already used the three PRA-relevant Hawks, so someone from the Jazz/Lakers game (the only other game on Sunday) has to be the pick. Given that option, we’re going with Deron Williams.

Williams has been remarkably consistent, both in the regular season and playoffs. You can count on him for at least 30 PRA, and often more, like the 40 he busted out on Friday against the Rockets. Also taking into consideration Williams’ play against the Lakers this season (33.3 average PRA), we’re feeling pretty good about the Jazz point guard on Sunday.

However, the plot thickens if you’re not so sure about the Celtics’ chances on Sunday. Do you really want to let all of the players on a 66-win team go unused? That scenario could happen to a lot of Drive to the Finals players if the C’s lose on Sunday, as most of us were waiting to save Celtics for later rounds. If you’re not completely confident in Boston on Sunday, then you’ll want to take a Celtic while you still can. Kevin Garnett has averaged a PRA of 34 in the playoffs, but Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are also liable to explode for a big game.

So the question remains: how much do you trust the Celtics? We as experts do, and that’s why we’re going with Deron Williams.

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Deron Williams, UTAWhen: Sunday, May 4 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Opponent: @ LA Lakers
Pts: 20.8 Reb: 2.7 Ast: 8.5
Playoffs Average PRA: 32.0
Yesterday's Pick: Dwight Howard, ORL
Expert Pick Playoffs Total: 465
Expert Pick Archive
1. Kevin Garnett, BOS vs. ATL (34.0 PRA)
2. Mehmet Okur, UTA @ LAL (27.5 PRA)
3. Lamar Odom, LAL vs. UTA (25.5 PRA)
Our top choice here actually would have been one of the top three Hawks (Horford, Johnson and Smith), but we’ve used them all already and there’s no one else on Atlanta that gives us a lot of confidence. Still, if you have any of those three Hawks left and think the Celtics will win, then by all means use them. If you’re not as confident in the C’s, then Garnett has to be the pick. His playoff PRA is roughly eight points higher than any of his teammates, and you have to believe that he’ll be getting all of the crunch time shots in a Game Seven. Okur is a fine selection if you think the Jazz-Lakers series is going long, and don’t want to use Williams or Carlos Boozer yet. Odom is a fine pick if you think the Jazz are going to win their series over the Lakers.

Saturday
May 17
WNBA Regular Season Begins

Tuesday
May 20
NBA Draft Lottery

Thursday
June 5
NBA Finals start

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