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By Chris Cates, www.TalentedMrRoto.com
Have your questions answered by a fantasy basketball expert
There’s tons of mail to get to this week so I’ve chosen to bypass the intro and get straight to it. It’s a shame I can’t fit even more into the column, but so many of the e-mails were either way too many words (many could pass as essays), way too oddly formatted (one question was completely reversed on the page), or way too homerish (a certain Knicks fan sent me a lengthy message about how I was far too hard on what appears to be his favorite team). At any rate, there are questions to attend to and that continues to comprise a significant portion of my job description, so let’s get to it.
To the files we go…
I’m in a roto league and I just acquired Mike Bibby for Gerald Wallace. I needed more assists and now I have three quality point guards in Bibby, Parker, and Arenas. This move also makes Monta Ellis expendable for a high sell. Was that a good deal for me or will I regret it later?
Sincerely, Anthony
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Cates thinks Gerald Wallace is just one of the guys.
(D. Lippitt/Einstein/NBAE/Getty Images) |
Mike Bibby, on the other hand, is rolling. His stats are up a good deal (from already-solid totals) in every major statistical category except threes, where at a by far career-low mark of 25.6 percent, he’s guaranteed to improve a lot between now and the end of the season. I’ve always been one to believe that if you have more than five years of stats telling you a guy shoots within a certain range from behind the arc, odds are he’ll reach that mark again – and maybe even finish the season stronger to get there given a poor start. Mike Bibby is not a 25 percent shooter from three-point range – that much we know.
Monta Ellis is also a good sell high right now. I do like him a lot in the long term, but right now he strikes me as an overrated commodity. For one, his turnover numbers are just plain scary. He’s had a couple monster performances that are sure to boost his value in the trade market, but one look under the surface reveals he may not be as good as some think, at least at this point. With Baron Davis in the lineup, he’s more of a shooting guard at 6-3, and Don Nelson won’t continually give tons of minutes to an assist/turnover ratio of barely over one. He’s a young guy lacking major experience so he’ll have his ups and downs, but given his current value and what you could probably get for him in a trade, the down outweighs the up. Having said all that, if the market dictates a lower return value than you expected, don’t feel bad about holding on to him as he’s a nice high upside guy that isn’t a bad option by any stretch of the imagination.
This trade allows you to improve your point guard situation, fill a need and come away with more value than you should (at least at this point), considering who you’re giving up and how he’s performing. Consider yourself lucky and expect to improve in the near future.
Hey Chris,
Well it's a new season and the "magic man" is back in action, but I have a situation with one of my leagues I could use your advice with. I'm sitting on top of the league with a 5-0 record, but the second place team (4-0) is desperately pursuing a trade with me. So let me tell you what I have, what he has, and see if a move is prudent or not.
My team: Chris Paul, Kevin Martin, Steve Nash, Paul Pierce, Zach Randolph, Jermaine O’Neal, Tim Duncan, Chris Bosh, Andre Biedrins, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Monta Ellis, David West, And finally Memo Okur. ( nice huh? )
His team : Tony Parker, Ray Allen, Baron Davis, Quentin Richardson, Hakim Warrick, Caron Butler, Amare Stoudemire, Marcus Camby, Leandro Barbosa, Larry Hughes, Manu Ginobili, Peja Stojakovic, Tayshaun Prince, and Carlos Boozer.
He wants Tim Duncan in the worst possible way ( big Spurs fan) and he has offered multiple trades to get him all which I have turned down, but here lately I have taken a look at Carlos Boozer noting his huge improvement and have been wondering if a trade involving those two players wouldn't be too bad.
During the draft everyone was going after shooting gaurds so I went after the bigs figuring I would trade one away for team needing one badly. The only stud guard I went after was Nash. My plan worked and I traded Shaq for Chris Paul. Randolph was a hunch that has paid off well so far. I also traded Amare for Okur thinking of the players reliability, I don't know if that was a good choice or not yet, but anyway back to the deal Duncan for Boozer, what do you think?
Your friend The Magic Man est. 1989
It was just a matter of time. A matter of time, that is, until The Magic Man made his triumphant return. Those of you who were with me last year probably remember this loyal reader and e-mailer, who earned celebrity status with an almost-weekly appearance in this spot. It’s good to have you back Magic Man, and I’m glad to see the success has carried over.
All the moves you described sound good so far. You’ve improved a lot since the draft and now that you have a Tim Duncan-lover all over you for Timmy, you could improve a lot more from just one deal. The thing with homers (die hard fans of a certain team) is, as you know, they’ll give more than they should to get their man. Your job is to allow them to do so. Start by going for big pieces - guys worth a good deal more than what you’re giving up. You may get a quick rejection, but if you continue along this path by asking for a little big less every time, you will likely strike gold before long.
The fact that you are so loaded up front makes parting with Duncan that much easier, but don’t advertise this to the Duncan suitor. Make it seem like you’re reluctant to give him up, talk up his double-double average, etc., and make this guy want him even more. If he’s really as big a fan as it sounds, he’ll bite and overpay eventually.
Chris,
I am in an eight-category league and I am planning to make my team better to maintain my 1st week form. I proposed a trade that involves Ben Wallace, Jason Terry and Drew Gooden, and I planned to ship them for Chris Paul and Morris Peterson.
Another trade that I proposed is to ship Ricky Davis and Carlos Boozer for Jermaine O'Neal and Tyrus Thomas.
If you are the owners of these players that I will receive, is this enough for the trade to continue?
I hope you could answer this question. Thank you and God Bless.
Albert, Philippines
I continue to be amazed by the versatility of my audience. Albert from the Phillipines joins a list that includes many other parts of the world, a list that one of these days I’ll go over and reveal in this space. But Albert – as far as I know – didn’t e-mail me for location credibility. He e-mailed me for advice, so advice I shall give.
It’s hard to answer this in complete honesty given that I don’t have your roster in front of me, but both trades seem to be evenly matched. These aren’t the laugher type offers that you see with great frequency; that is, the owner on the receiving end of the offer sees the offer, and – you guessed it – laughs. These trades aren’t veto targets, either.
Are you getting the better end of these deals? With absolutely no roster in front of me, I’d say yes if you need assists. Jason Terry is not playing too well now and Devin Harris is the true point guard. So, Terry will get very few assists at the two. More threes will come, but that’s the only edge he has on Chris Paul. Paul will be a monster everywhere else, especially in steals, assists and rebounds, and his across-the-board stats as a point guard are so staggering that even losing a guy like Ben Wallace in addition to Terry could warrant a move.
Neither deal is too uneven and both have a shot at acceptance, and that’s pretty much all you can ask for when trading with a fellow owner.
Hey Chris,
I'm sure you get plenty of e-mails regarding defending champs, but I’m trying my hardest to defend my (rookie) title...I am in a 16 team 10 cat H2H league (TO's & PF's) and my squad is as follows:
PG: Ford, Hinrich, Bibby, D. Williams & Jack SG: K. Martin SF-PF: Marion, Villanueva, Marvin Williams, Warrick, Gay, C: Milicic, Dalembert, Aldridge & Biedrins
Based on your expertise...I don’t think standing pat will work out...Where would you say my team needs improvement?
Appreciate your time and work. Thank you.
Ishvar Prasad
Why of course I get plenty of e-mails regarding defending champs, Ishvar. For all of my readers are defending champs. This is common knowledge around these parts!
All kidding aside, though, I see some strengths that I wouldn’t necessarily expect to see for a 16-team league. For example, I’m loving the point guard situation. Kirk Hinrich and Mike Bibby are tremendous point guard anchors for a 10 or 12 team league, let alone a 16-teamer. Add in Deron Williams, Jarrett Jack and T.J. Ford, and I’m absolutely sure you have the best point men in your league. I’m not going to lie to you, I see very few weaknesses looking at your team. You’ve got the versatility covered in a big way with Shawn Marion, and to a lesser extent with Kevin Martin and a couple other guys.
The only real weakness I see is center and boards, and that can be fixed. Darko Milicic and Sam Dalembert are both guys that I liked coming into this season, ,and guys that could still improve their stats, but neither is really starter-worthy at this point. With Andris Biedrins likely starting for you at the five right now, though, you’re probably sitting fairly pretty in the big man stats. A nice surprise, eh? But his play won’t last. I don’t think there’s any way we see 9.5 boards and 2.6 blocks per game all year. Consider trying to package him with one of your excess small/power forwards in exchange for a better, more proven center. Many owners really do buy into the first fraction of the season, and those are the ones that will give their Brad Miller for a very overachieving Biedrins.
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The Cates Theory: Sell High on Kevin Martin.
(Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images) |
If you’ve read any of my recent columns, you’ll recall that I’m a proponent of the "sell Kevin Martin high stance." I don’t think it could hurt to package him with one of the aforementioned excess small/power forwards and see if you can get a struggling stud at shooting guard. Or – if Kirk Hinrich is shooting guard eligible like he is in a couple of my leagues – you could even consider packaging Martin with Biedrins for a stud Center.
Fantasy hoops is all about maximizing value. Shipping off overachievers for underachievers will get you far, and even if only half of the guys you acquire end up playing up to the level you expected them to ultimately attain, you’ve got a lineup superior to the competition. More often than not, the overachievers fall back to earth, the underachievers jump back up, and all is right in the world. If you can add those underachievers for the right guys at the right time, like we’re trying to accomplish with Kevin Martin and Andris Biedrins above, you’ll win your league going away.
So to recap, you’ve got a very strong team for a 16-team league. You’re more than set at point guard. You’re talented across the board and could only really stand to improve at Center and in the big man categories. Try selling your overachievers high for underachieving studs at the position/areas of need and ride your talented team to victory.
On the Money
Those of you that were with me last year know that the “On the Money” section is a chance for me to reflect on past advice I’ve dished out, given the perspective that comes with time passed. Sounds exciting, eh? Well beginning next week, this section will be a mainstay until season’s end. So don’t forget to tune in next week to see where I was On… the… Money!
And with that, I’m out like Shaq. I’d like everyone to know that I really, really appreciate all the e-mails I get. Whether you’re a fan of me that just wants to tell me so, a fan of the Knicks that likes to spend your time writing essays on why I’m out of line for correctly assessing the state of the team, or simply a person with a question or five, I recognize and appreciate you for taking time out of your day for little ol’ me. So keep the e-mails coming to CatesFiles@TalentedMrRoto.com, it means a lot and they’re entertaining to read. Until next week, The Cates Files are officially closed….
Chris Cates is a fantasy expert for www.TalentedMrRoto.com, which features free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. It was nominated for four FSTA awards, including best site. Contact him at CatesFiles@TalentedMrRoto.com.
The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
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