Have your questions answered by a fantasy basketball expert

Lamar Odom is off to great start, but is he going to bring in the boards you need? (D. Lippitt/Einstein/NBAE/Getty Images)

I am speculating a little theory, folks. If the first three days of the new NBA season are any indication, free throw percentages are way down league-wide. Fifteen of the 30 teams in the league have hit under 70 percent of their free throws in the first game or two. Folks, that’s half. During the regular season last year, only one team shot under 70 percent. Now I realize it’s way, way too early to jump to any conclusions. But quite frankly, I feel like jumping…and it’s not three or four more teams than last year. It’s half the league. Could the new ball be causing problems for free throw shooters around the league? Only time will tell...

To the files….

Hey mate!

Love your column work…think it’s tops!!

We had a fantasy draft about 2-3 weeks ago now and this is my team as it stands...

Ray Felton, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, D Howard, Lamar Odom, Charlie V, Boris Diaw, Mehmet Okur, Brandon Roy, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams, Sebastian Telfair.

I was amazed at the fact that I got everyone I wanted! People just weren't selecting these guys!!!

Am I stupid to think I have an amazing team here, or what?

Your thoughts?

Shayne Grieve
Australia

I’m torn here. Not about the question, mind you, but about Shayne. Is he really Australian, or is he cashing in on the success (a.k.a. a column appearance) of the last Australian e-mailer? Is Shayne really an Aussie, or is he faking his Australianity? Better yet, is Australianity even a word? Either way, I like the effort. You’re good in my book, mate. As for the question, it’s hard to gauge this sort of thing without league size, etc. in your hip pocket, but it looks solid.

I like the three main point guards you drafted (Raymond Felton, Joe Johnson, Deron Williams) a lot, but I think you would do well to acquire one more solid contributor there. Joe Johnson isn’t the assist-man he used to be as he’s more of a scorer than anything else, which leaves you with about two and a half point guards that help in assists. I’m a big fan of Sebastian Telfair in real basketball, but he’s splitting minutes with Rajon Rondo (who I love in fantasy) and Delonte West, so his assist numbers will be limited. Consider trying to deal Telfair to an owner who views him more by his talent than his minutes, along with Brandon Roy (another young point guard that won’t be amazing in assists, but has hype) for an upgrade at point guard of the Jameer Nelson variety. If you could get that kind of value for those two, you’re sitting pretty.

I’m assuming you took Dwight Howard in the first round – and even though he usually doesn’t go that high, I think he finishes that high. I’ve watched a lot of the Orlando Magic’s two games so far in the young season, and Dwight Howard is a beast. The man is going to be amazing night in and night out, and I think we’re looking at top 10 in the league when all is said and done this season.

It looks to me like you have a lot of guard/forward flex type guys (Josh Smith, Lamar Odom, Boris Diaw) that aren’t going to contribute big time in rebounds, and only three solid boards guys (Howard, Mehmet Okur, Charlie Villanueva). You may be able to get by with this, but the goal in fantasy is to build on your strong areas as opposed to being just alright everywhere. Consider acquiring more big men for your flex guys that contribute across the board but don’t dominate anywhere. Don’t get me wrong – I love the across-the-board contributor just as much as the next guy. But I think there’s a limit to how many you should have, and you could improve your team by adding at least one more big man.

Overall, it’s a talented team. It’s fairly obvious after only one glance that you got good value in many rounds, and are probably in better shape – at least value wise – than most other teams in your league. With a couple trades and a couple more free agent moves, you could be set for the long haul.

Hey,

I’m in a 14-team league, and I picked up Kenny Thomas in the second to last round. However, I've been thinking about dropping him and picking up Collison or May…What do you think? Thank you very much for you help!

Best,
Brian

There are question marks with all three of these guys. Kenny Thomas has nice talent and started the first game, but he’s got Shareef Abdur-Rahim right there. Sean May is going to be very good; he posted a double-double in his first game and will start the next two weeks – that is, until Primoz Brezec comes back, at which time May might be relegated to the bench. Nick Collison should be starting if you ask me (Johan Petro and Mouhamed Sene – come on, now), but he’s not and his minutes are suffering as a result.

But like I always say, when faced with question marks of similar value, choose the one with the most upside. That man is Sean May. He’s got the aforementioned upside, plus he’ll contribute more right now than the other two. Once Brezec comes back, things may change. But if the Bobcats make what I feel is the smart move, May and Emeka Okafor will fill the post positions all season long. My thinking is this: by the time Brezec returns, May will have proven so much that Charlotte can’t remove him from the starting lineup. He’s the better rebounder, and he is the future – so why not make the future now?

If May’s minutes decrease a good deal upon Brezec’s return, just dump him for Collison or Thomas. But if things pan out like I think they will, you’ll have yourself a year-long contributor off the waiver wire, and what more could one ask for? Go with May.

Hey Chris,
I'm currently in a 16-man h2h league, with none of the teams looking like major standouts (and I just suffered the crippling loss of Marvin Williams), and with the best guys on the waiver wire looking like Anthony Johnson and Monta Ellis. My question is this: in a deeper league, when making trades would it be more advantageous to be on the side which gains greater depth (let's say two mid-round picks) or the side that gains the better player (an early round and a late rounder pick) assuming they're of roughly equivalent value? Unfortunately, I can't give any specific examples as of such, and I guess it really stands as a different case for each individual trade. But if you could provide some insight, it would be much appreciated.

Cheers,
Bill

This is a great question, Bill. A question of the year candidate, in fact. Many will disagree on this issue, but my answer invariably comes back the same: the team that gets the best player in the deal is better off than the team that gets two solid guys.

Many owners have blurred vision as far as two-for-one trades are concerned. They see a trade like this, and think they win the deal:

Team one gets the following:

Player A: 12 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists per game
Player B: 10 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game

And team two gets the following:

Player C: 17.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game

Team one believes they get more points, more rebounds and more assists from the deal, and therefore have no reason not to make the trade. And while this is technically true as far as the players in the trade are concerned, there is one forgotten ingredient to this shindig. Team two gets to pick a guy up. Let’s say they pick up the following:

Player D (free agent): 9.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists per game

And let’s say they have the following guy on their bench:

Player E (bench): 10.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists per game

Assuming both player A and player B were starting for this phantom team, they will replace them with player C and their choice of player D or player E, and will have upgraded their team across the board. Such is almost always the case with two for ones – you get more but it’s masked by the fact that the picked-up guy isn’t included in the deal. This is why two-for-ones are often available: owners don’t realize that the side which gets the better player trumps the side that gets more depth almost all the time.

There are times when getting the depth is necessary, though. If, for example, Vince Carter and Earl Boykins were both starters on your team – you’re not in good shape at point guard. Dealing Carter for a better point guard and a very solid Carter-replacement could serve you well. But this is not usually the case, and especially isn’t for you in a 16-team league. The more talent you have in that deep a league, the better you’ll do. Any two-for-one trade that ends with you getting the best player in the deal is a good trade for you, unless it hurts one of your starting slots a great deal. I imagine this question could be argued either way, though.

As they say in Mexico, adios muchachos. And yes, if you were wondering, I am aware that until now, there had been no mention of a certain Yao Ming in this column. Is it a punishable offense? You bet your boots it is – Yao has earned his place in this column with his undying love for foot injuries. During our off-time, feel free to join the masses and e-mail me your thoughts and questions at CatesFiles@TalentedMrRoto.com. Until next week, The Cates Files are officially closed.

Chris Cates is a fantasy expert for www.TalentedMrRoto.com, which features free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. It was nominated for four FSTA awards, including best site. Contact him at CatesFiles@TalentedMrRoto.com.

The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.

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