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By Guy Lake and Tom Lorenzo, TalentedMrRoto.com
Two fantasy hoops experts debate the reasonable expectations of recently emerging players.
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Will next year be the year Rashad McCants breaks out?
(David Sherman/NBAE/Getty Images) |
TOM: I knew that we could do it. Here we are in the final week of the NBA season and we’re still talking hoops. It’s been an interesting season and the big theme of the old NBA winter dance has been injuries. Too many to even get into. But, if we had to throw a winter formal and assign a dress code, it would be formalwear since most players bought enough Big & Tall sport coats and matching trousers to insulate my one-bedroom apartment for those oh so chilly New York twilights. Another great theme of this fleeting NBA season has been, of course, tanking. Yes, we all know about Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. And they certainly seem like fine fellas worth tanking for. In fact, I find myself to be a little less productive each day at work in order to do my part in getting more ping pong balls for my lottery bound team. But let’s look at the constructive side of this practice. Next year we are going to be lucky enough to see Oden and Durant play 82 games in the Association. Yeah, that’s going to be fun. It’s also been the year of Team Lake and Lorenzo. Sure, we’ve made some questionable calls, but we did have some good times. I don’t know if I enjoyed Guy’s cautionary tales of traveling with young children, or the discovery of cheerleaders blogging more, but the playoffs are here and if there is one thing that Guy and I agree on, it’s that the Mavs are primed to win the championship this year. Right, Guy?
GUY: Even though it hurts me to do it, Tom, I have to agree. I think the Mavs should win the title. The only viable threat is the San Antonio Spurs. Next week's matchup will be an interesting forecast for both teams. Sorry Phoenix faithful, as much as I love their style, I don't see them beating either of the Texas teams in a seven game series. Well, here we are, celebrating the last column of the year on Friday the Thirteenth. Tom and I decided to do something a little different this time around. Instead of run through three players and give you our takes, we decided to look at thirteen players who represent deeper sleepers for next season and tell you who each of us thinks is real. Then we'll comment on each other's choices. Ideally, we hit the jackpot and uncover next year's Kevin Martin or Al Jefferson. We will be digging deep and almost all the players on our lists will go undrafted in twelve-team and smaller leagues. We start with my deeper sleepers. These are guys I think will be under most owners' radar next year and represent real value at the end of drafts and auctions.
Guy's Deeper Sleepers:
Renaldo Balkman - SF/PF, New York Knicks
GUY: Yes, it appears that James Dolan gave Isiah his extension a bit too early. Sign me up next time Jimmy is hosting a poker game. Still, Isiah does deserve some credit for identifying talent even if his team fails to make the playoffs. His pick of Balkman was mocked at draft time, but Isiah knew what he was doing. This kid is a hawk on defense and should be a nice end of the draft acquisition for teams in need of defensive stats. Think of him as a poor man's Kirilenko—as in Kirilenko from a year ago—but with more steals than blocks.
TOM: You know I love him, Guy. I’ll admit, though, I was a bit confused by the pick too, but he looks like the perfect fit for this team. Great defender and hustle guy. He should put up nice numbers next year. Isiah, the draft guru, does it again.
Sergio Rodriguez - PG/SG, Portland Trail Blazers
GUY: He's better than Jarrett Jack and should be starting. The question is whether he will. Sergio has more vision than the Masonic eye and has shown he can be a double-digit assist guy. He is young (just 20 years old) and needs to improve his defense, but that's true for almost any rookie out there. Despite defensive miscues, Sergio is too talented for Nate McMillan to limit his minutes next season. He can carve up a defense and the thought of him running the pick and roll with LaMarcus Aldridge brings a smile to my face.
TOM: Spanish chocolate! He’s got great skill, especially as a distributor. I'm just not sure that he’s going to get the nod over Jarrett Jack just yet.
Rashad McCants - PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
GUY: He hasn't been 100 percent at any point this season and his season averages are well below the fantasy radar. Coming back from microfracture surgery will do that to a player. This is good news because it means McCants will go undrafted in most leagues next season. This kid is an explosive scorer and can light it up from long range. Minnesota is a team adrift right now, and I can see them looking to go young next season. If they do, McCants could be a big beneficiary.
TOM: Too many injuries here. He needs to show me he can stay healthy before I go out and draft him. Love his skill, but health concerns are too much for me.
Walter Herrmann - SF/PF, Charlotte Bobcats
GUY: Yeah, we covered him last week, but he has done nothing to make me change my take. He drives with authority, has great ball control in the air, shoots the three, and will get minutes with the Bobcats next season. He is better than Adam Morrison for the fact that he is so much better taking the ball to the rim and because, with his superior strength, he isn't as easily knocked off his shot by defenders. He is a bigger, stronger, but less creative version of fellow Argentine Manu Ginobili. His scoring is for real and he'll be available late in drafts.
TOM: He’s 28 years old and has long hair. Enough said? Well, he’s playing great down the stretch and shooting the ball nicely from beyond the arc. I may not be sold on 82 games from Herrmann, but he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.
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April 6: 
GUY: Boone will go undrafted in most leagues, but he could be a nice force for blocks and rebounding. The Nets have been looking for an inside presence for years. I don't see any insurmountable obstacles in the Nets frontcourt to keep Boone from a spike in minutes: Mikki Moore? Jason Collins? Capable, yes, but neither has the upside of Boone. Even Nenad Krstic will be limited to start the year as he recovers from ACL surgery. Boone, meanwhile, will be a year removed from the labrum surgery that erased the first two months of his season. He’s primed to log big minutes down low and give the Nets the rebounding they need.
TOM: I like him a great deal. The knock on him coming out of college was that he was “lazy.” He’s shown, though, that he has the ability to be a solid PF in the East, and his game goes perfectly with that of returning Nets center, Nenad Krstic.
Ronnie Brewer - SG/SF, Utah Jazz
GUY: They say Jerry Sloan doesn't like rookies. Well, they're right. Paul Millsap has seen some run this year and is a guy who is poised to break out—though it's safe to say he is pretty well known at this point. Brewer is another talented youngster on the Jazz who until recently has spent most of his games getting to know the season ticket holders in the front row . He is rangy and athletic and is finally getting some starts at the end of the year in place of the injured Andrei Kirilenko, a sign that he has started to win Sloan over. The Jazz are far from deep at shooting guard and a strong preseason could win Ronnie the starting job. Keep an eye on him during the playoffs.
TOM: Great athlete and defender. The Jazz were in desperate need of a two-guard, though Brewer is not the outside shooter they were looking for when they drafted him. I still think, though, that he will contribute, especially on the defensive end.
Travis Outlaw - SF/PF, Portland Trail Blazers
GUY: I feel like I have been saying this for a long time but, hey, what's the harm in doing so one more time? Next year, Travis Outlaw is going to blow up on the NBA. He plays excellent defense, can absolutely sky, and has been much improved of late. There has been enough hype about this guy that is likely to be taken in the last round of mid-sized leagues. If Sergio Rodriguez is running the point for the Blazers, I like Outlaw to receive a lot of alley oops above the rim. And don't forget, he is one of the few players in the Association averaging nearly a steal (0.9) and a block (1.2) per game this season.
TOM: I like him too. The only problem is that we see him blow up each year in the summer league only to disappoint in the regular season. Skilled and athletic, but hasn’t seemed to be able to put it all together since he’s been in the league.
Tom’s Deeper Sleepers:
Thabo Sefolosha - PG/SG, Chicago Bulls
TOM: Thabo has really started to grow on me. And that’s not just because he’s considered to be a lock down defender. He’s a quick, athletic guard who can get out in transition. His shot has certainly improved throughout the season, and I suspect his defensive numbers to improve significantly next year as well. With Andres Nocioni a free agent this summer, the Bulls may opt to let him walk and go with Sefolosha as their defensive two guard.
GUY: It may take another year for Sefolosha to fully blossom, but he is an up and comer in the NBA. I think of him as a Mickael Pietrus with better handles. He is a strong defender already but needs to take the ball to the rack more for me to dub him for real. I am confident he will be for real by his third year but am not sure gets the minutes next season.
Andray Blatche - SF/PF, Washington Wizards
TOM: At only 20 years old, it’s hard to believe that next season will already be Andray Blatche's third. While Blatche was drafted right out of high school, he’s shown little progress in his first two seasons. The skill-set, size, and athleticism are all there. Blatche just needs to develop, and I think next season is when he’ll begin realizing his potential. He needs to take it to the hole more often and show better awareness on the defensive end. Next season he should put up some nice numbers as a lot of players drafted right out of high school usually start showing signs in year three.
GUY: This is a player I really like for deeper leagues. His quick hops lead to a lot of blocked shots. His 2.3 blocks per 48 minutes are only that low because of the number of games in which he played ten minutes or less. Once he received minutes, starting in February, he got like the class brownnose and started erasing everything in site. He should be great source of cheap blocks and boards next season.
Ronald "Flip" Murray - PG, Detroit Pistons
TOM: Look for Flip Murray to be a viable fantasy starter next year, especially if Chauncey Billups decides to walk and play elsewhere. If the Pistons decide to fill the void internally, they can look to Murray to take over the reigns at point. He’s a decent scorer, but he needs to work on dishing the ball more. If Billups makes Milwaukee, or some other Midwestern “brewing and manufacturing powerhouse” city, his home next season, this might be the perfect opportunity for Flip Murray to start for coach Flip Saunders. Wait, two Flips on one team? I need to sit down.
GUY: Flip always shows up in bursts. He'll dazzle you for a few weeks with high scoring then head back to the bench and provide pedestrian numbers. I have a hard time seeing him get that much run for a full 82 games.
Trevor Ariza - SG/SF, Orlando Magic
TOM: Now here’s a guy I really like. He’s the best player in the Penny Hardaway/Steve Francis exchange that happened last season. He’s quick, lengthy, and is shooting 54 percent from the floor for the year. Aside from the injury he sustained in December, Ariza has been putting up great numbers all season for someone who is only playing 21 minutes per game. With Grant Hill’s age and health always in question, I think Ariza is ready to step in and put up 15 and eight next season. Heck, he can even surprise us and surpass all expectations. Again, nice draft pick by talent evaluator Isiah Thomas, but poor trade by GM Isiah Thomas.
GUY: I agree with Tom. This was a terrible trade by Isiah. Ariza could be a nice sleeper for teams as Grant Hill cedes him more playing time. While I am a fan of Hedo Turkoglu, defense is not his strength and this provides an opportunity for the ball-hawking Ariza. He has the skills to put up exactly the numbers Tom projects.
Rajon Rondo - PG, Boston Celtics
TOM: The Sebastian Telfair experiment has gone horribly wrong. Insert Rajon Rondo and it makes it easier for Celtic fans to sleep at night. Not much easier, but just enough shut eye to be able to open up the morning box scores and see that Rondo has been spectacular in the final month of the season. He is a fantastic rebounder and defender. We are talking about a PG who can average 15 points, eight assists, eight rebounds, and two steals next year. The questions as to who will be the starting point guard in Boston have all but subsided. He should be a great pick-up next year.
GUY: Rondo should be manning the point in Boston next season. Tom's forecast for scoring and rebounds might be a bit high, but make no mistake, this kid is a serious talent. He is a superior athlete who, if he ever develops a reliable jump shot, will score easily in the NBA. The defense and assists are for real, and many point guards take a big statistical step in their second seasons.
Shawne Williams - SF/PF, Indiana Pacers
TOM: Here’s a guy with great skill. He's long, has great handles, and can shoot. Many believe that he had the most upside of any rookie selected in last summer’s NBA Draft. Of course, he’s still young at just 21 years of age. The Pacers are currently stuck between contending and rebuilding, though they are much closer to the latter than the former. Aside from Danny Granger, and possibly Ike Diogu, Williams looks like he’s the only other player on the Pacers who will certainly have a role in their rebuilding. If Jermaine O’Neal leaves next year, then there is a good chance that Williams will see a significant increase in playing time as he’ll be thrown into the fire and asked to learn as he goes. He could be a deep sleeper next year. Keep your eye on him.
GUY: Not a guy worth drafting as his role is so undefined but, as Tom said, he does have the whole upside thing going for him. Watch him in the first few weeks of the season. If he cracks the rotation, he could put up numbers across the stat sheet.
TOM: Guy, I have to say that it’s been a pleasure working with you this season. While we haven’t agreed on everything, if there is one thing we can agree on, it’s that we may be the only fantasy writing duo with a theme song which makes me feel kind of, well, honored. Thanks again for all the support from the readers. Enjoy the playoffs!
GUY: Likewise, Tom. It's been a great year. You helped keep the column fresh, and I appreciated your different takes. You even affected my reference books. Now, in my Merriam Webster Collegiate Dictionary, I have a picture of you next to the entry for homer. I would also like to thank our readers, who sent us e-mails throughout the year and most of them didn't call us idiots. Until next season, enjoy the playoffs and all the rabid speculation that comes at draft time in June.
Guy Lake and Tom Lorenzo are fantasy experts for TalentedMrRoto.com , which features free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. It was nominated for four FSTA awards, including best site. Contact them at guylake@TalentedMrRoto.com and tomlorenzo@TalentedMrRoto.com.
The views expressed by TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
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