Oct. 24 -- When you think of last year's Phoenix Suns, you think of an atheltic team with skilled offensive players led by Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion. Terms like high-flying and run-and-gun come to mind. The word "rebounding" doesn't. But it should -- at least for fantasy basketball owners.
The Suns led all NBA teams during the 2004-05 season in total rebounds, averaging 44.1 per game. That's almost a board a game more than the Eastern Conference champion Detroit Pistons (43.4), and nearly two boards a night better than the World Champion San Antonio Spurs (42.4).
This information surprised me -- momentarily. But of course it makes perfect sense when you consider how Phoenix plays: run, push the ball, run, shoot the ball, run, excel at the transition game, then run some more. A Suns game in 2004-05 featured lots of scoring, but it also featured lots of shots -- some made, many missed. And missed shots mean rebound opportunities. Incidentally, none of this is meant to suggest that the Suns were a good rebounding team last year. Despite grabbing more rebounds than any other team, Phoenix was on the short end on the boards more nights than not. Suns opponents averaged 46.1 boards a game. Only Golden State surrendered more.
So what does this mean for fantasy owners? Well, last year at least, it meant when Phoenix appeared on the schedule, it was an opportune occasion for getting someone like Dan Gadzuric -- a board warrior but a borderline fantasy starter -- into the lineup. It also means that in general, when the league's running offenses are in action -- Sacramento and Washington, for example -- you should give more consideration to putting your best rebounders in your lineup. More shots equal more boards.
With this, our third of three articles in advance of the 2005-06 NBA season, we'll take a closer look at last year's rebounding stats -- as well as last year's team turnover stats -- and try to determine how a few of these numbers can help fantasy owners make those tough start-or-sit lineup calls for this upcoming season. Then next week, we'll put theory into practice by offering some lineup suggestions for the opening week of the NBA regular season.
Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors -- In a sense, these teams are mirror images. Last year, Phoenix thrived with its explosive offense, while the Warriors struggled as a poor imitation of the Suns. But this year, with Amare Stoudemire out for an extended period and Baron Davis with the Warriors for an entire season, it could well be the other way around.
As noted, in 2004-05, Golden State allowed the most rebounds in the league, 46.7 boards per game. Contributing to this number is the fact that the Warriors shot more bricks than any other team in the league. They took the most field-goal attempts -- 85.8 a game, edging out the Suns, who averaged 85.6 attempts a night -- while finishing 28th in field-goal percentage (43.0 percent). Phoenix, in contrast, was second in the league in shooting percentage.
The Suns figure to play the same style this year, but with Stoudemire shelved and Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson since-traded, they won't get the same results in terms of their offensive efficiency. Rebounding wise, there will still be plenty of boards to go around. Not only for guys like Marion and the newly acquired Kurt Thomas (who finished third and seventh, respectively, in the NBA in rebounding in 2004-05), but also for the Suns' opponents.
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The Warriors' big three can lift their teammates up but not their own field goal percentages.
Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images |
Golden State too figures to remain a team that fantasy owners will want to exploit from a rebounding standpoint. Starters Jason Richardson, Troy Murphy and Davis averaged almost 49 field-goal attempts a night last year, but only Richardson (44.6 percent) managed to shoot better than 42 percent. Moreover, because the Warriors didn't make any significant offseason moves, there's little reason to expect they'll be much stronger on the glass. Aside from Murphy, who was fifth in the league with 10.8 boards per game, no Warrior averaged more than six rebounds a game last year.
Toronto Raptors -- Toronto finished just below the Suns and Warriors in rebounds allowed last year. Sure, the Raptors have Chris Bosh (who averaged 8.9 rebounds in 2004-05), but with the loss of Donyell Marshall and his 6.6 rebounds per game in 2004-05, Toronto doesn't figure to get any better on the boards.
Philadelphia 76ers, (forced 16.4 opponents' turnovers per game in 2004-05) -- The Sixers have two of the league's leaders in steals: Allen Iverson (second in the league with 2.4 steals per game) and Andre Iguodala (eighth with 1.7). They'll continue to torment your players and add to your fantasy team's turnover total.
Denver Nuggets, (15.7) -- Like Philadelphia, Denver is essentially intact from last year. Andre Miller (15th in the league overall) and Kenyon Martin (23rd) led the Nuggets in steals.
Charlotte Bobcats, (15.2) -- Forcing turnovers is one thing the expansion Bobcats did well, and this should remain a strength of this year's team. Two regulars averaged better than a steal a night in 2004-05: Brevin Knight (2.0) and Gerald Wallace (1.7).
Minnesota Timberwolves, (11.1) -- Even two years ago when they advanced to the Western Conference finals, the 'Wolves were never a team capable of forcing its opposition into mistakes. The arrival of Marko Jaric (1.7 steals a game with the Clippers in 2004-05), should help somewhat in this regard.
Los Angeles Lakers, (11.2) -- Phil Jackson's return is reason enough to think that the Lakers will be a much better defensive group in 2005-06. Two years ago, the Lakers were in the middle of the pack in this category.
Neil Tardy is a fantasy expert for www.talentedmrroto.com, a site featuring free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. The site has been nominated for 16 Fantasy Sports Writing Awards by the FSWA, twice as many as any other site. Email him at njt64@talentedmrroto.com
The views expressed by the TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
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