The solution is really quite simple. We take our projected statistics and values for all players for the upcoming season and run a mock draft of who will go when according to those values. The first overall pick is worth a little over 34 because, well, that's what our rating says that LeBron James is worth for the upcoming season.
So, before you start swapping draft picks because it seems like the cool thing to do, take a closer look at what you're giving away and getting in return. You may think that the 1st and 20th are the equivalent to the 10th and 11th in a 10-team league, but that just isn't the case. And the important thing to remember is that the distribution of value in the draft is not a constant. What was true about the value of picks last year doesn't apply to this year.
This chart offers a little more insight as well. Is it best to own the number one overall pick? Based on this exercise, it is not. Instead, you should be hoping for the third or fourth slot. Granted, the difference is minimal, but there is a difference. And it starts early -- after every team has made two picks, the team with the third slot has a total value that is as much as two points greater than other teams.
So, when the names come out of the hat on draft day, and you get the third overall slot, jump for joy. Wave your hands like you just don't care. Your friends will think you're nuts, but you'll have a quick advantage on the competition.
| Tm 1 | Tm 2 | Tm 3 | Tm 4 | Tm 5 | Tm 6 | Tm 7 | Tm 8 | Tm 9 | Tm 10 | |
| Rnd 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Value | 34.2 | 33.1 | 32.9 | 32.3 | 31.9 | 31.6 | 28.9 | 28.2 | 27.9 | 27.5 |
| Rnd 2 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| Value | 21.4 | 21.5 | 23.5 | 23.6 | 23.8 | 24.6 | 26.1 | 26.3 | 26.6 | 27.5 |
| Rnd 3 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Value | 20.6 | 20.5 | 20.2 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 18.5 | 18.4 | 18.0 | 17.6 | 17.3 |
| Rnd 4 | 40 | 39 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 35 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 |
| Value | 15.3 | 15.6 | 15.7 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.1 | 16.6 | 16.9 | 17.1 | 17.2 |
| Rnd 5 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 |
| Value | 15.3 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| Rnd 6 | 60 | 59 | 58 | 57 | 56 | 55 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 51 |
| Value | 12.8 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 14.1 | 14.3 | 14.5 |
| Rnd 7 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 |
| Value | 12.8 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| Rnd 8 | 80 | 79 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 71 |
| Value | 10.2 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| Rnd 9 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 |
| Value | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| Rnd 10 | 100 | 99 | 98 | 97 | 96 | 95 | 94 | 93 | 92 | 91 |
| Value | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| Rnd 11 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 |
| Value | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| Rnd 12 | 120 | 119 | 118 | 117 | 116 | 115 | 114 | 113 | 112 | 111 |
| Value | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| Rnd 13 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 |
| Value | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Rnd 14 | 140 | 139 | 138 | 137 | 136 | 135 | 134 | 133 | 132 | 131 |
| Value | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Tm 1 | Tm 2 | Tm 3 | Tm 4 | Tm 5 | Tm 6 | Tm 7 | Tm 8 | Tm 9 | Tm 10 | |
| All Picks | 178.1 | 177.6 | 179.2 | 179.1 | 177.9 | 178.3 | 177.2 | 177.3 | 176.6 | 176.9 |
| Picks 1-2 | 55.6 | 54.7 | 56.4 | 55.9 | 55.7 | 56.2 | 55.0 | 54.6 | 54.4 | 55.0 |
| Picks 1-7 | 132.4 | 131.6 | 133.1 | 132.6 | 131.3 | 131.5 | 130.4 | 130.1 | 129.3 | 130.0 |
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