It was perhaps his most ringing endorsement.
Of the 200 or so profiles crammed into a medium-sized three-ring binder, here was Marty Blake taking 52 years of NBA draft-related experience and pouring it into a few lines of staggered text, which read as follows: “Excellent talent, who plays numerous positions. Can play three positions on the NBA level. ’Nuff said … just take him.”
Nowhere is the art of the second guess more practiced than in NBA draft circles, where the allure of potential can sometimes outweigh the dullness of consistency and performance. Perhaps it’s because the word “potential” actually carries more than one meaning. There’s the standard definition -- something that can develop or become actual. There’s also the more scientific designation -- the work required to move a unit positive charge from a reference point to a point in question.
“Sometimes it’s just hard to gauge a guy’s heart and competitiveness until he gets out on his own and takes a few knocks in the world of basketball,” said Allan Bristow, a former player, coach and general manager in the NBA and now Assistant General Manager of the New Orleans Hornets. “I can assure you there are 29 teams kicking themselves over Marquis Daniels.”
The 2004 NBA Draft could see a record number of high school and international players selected in the first round, and the chances any of them will have a more productive second season than Carlos Boozer, a second-round pick of the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2002, are remote. With this in mind, the following is a team of second-round picks and undrafted players from the last six NBA drafts (1998-2003), with some of the league’s most influential and experienced draft experts, and some of the players themselves, weighing in on some of the circumstances surrounding these picks.
Shooting Guard – Michael Redd
The decision to draft Redd was pretty simple for Bucks GM Ernie Grunfeld. He and his staff had slotted Redd in the middle part of the first round and were more than surprised when the sharp-shooting lefty was still on the board at 43.
“Sometimes you have to get lucky,” Grunfeld said. “I don’t think there’s specific formula for these things. You go out, you do your homework on these players, you bring them in for your interviews and your workouts and you follow their careers. You take as many of your evaluation tools as you can and then you try and make an educated decision.”
Redd played a total of 35 minutes as a rookie. This past season, he made his first All-Star appearance and was named to the All-NBA Third Team. “Some of the credit has to go to Michael,” said Grunfeld. “Sometimes you don’t know what type of work ethic and character a player is going to bring, and he had had a lot of it and continued to work on his game and turned into an All-Star.”
Point Guard – Gilbert Arenas
Arenas didn’t have to wait long to hear his name called in Round 2. After earning the starting job late in 2001-02, as he predicted he would, Arenas became the league’s Most Improved Player in 2002-03, then arguably the most sought after free agent that summer. This past season, Arenas was one of only four players in the NBA to average at least 19 points, five assists and four rebounds, joining Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, LeBron James and Baron Davis.
Center – Brad Miller
In the summer of 1998, Brad Miller was an undrafted rookie free agent during a lockout. In the summer of 2003, he signed a lucrative seven-year deal with the Sacramento Kings. So, how does a guy like Miller, who played in a big conference at Purdue and averaged 17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds as a senior, find himself undrafted and playing for Bini Viaggi of the Italian League before eventually catching on with the Hornets?
“It seems like they didn’t realize how hard I play, that I’m in this game to win,” said Miller at his second All-Star Media Availability session in February in Los Angeles. “I guess scouts thought you had to be able to jump over the rim, but I’ve proven that theory wrong, that you don’t have to fly above the rim to be successful in this league.”
Small Forward – Rashard Lewis
With his hometown Houston Rockets holding three first round picks (14, 16, 18), Lewis figured he was a shoe-in for the first round. When the smoke cleared, he was on his way to Seattle without a guaranteed contract. Lewis has since developed into one of the league’s best shooting forwards, and is a cornerstone of Sonics franchise.
“As much time and money and resources as we spend on the draft, I always like to stand up and say, ‘Hey, this is the guy we had targeted all along,’ said Wally Walker. “But that’s not even close to the truth. We didn’t spend much more than cursory time with him as we prepared for the draft.”
Power Forward – Carlos Boozer
Every general manager interviewed expressed admiration for Boozer, though some pointed out this isn’t the same player who was on the board in 2002, a fact the man himself agreed with. “I’ve gotten better since I was in college,” said Boozer, who averaged 15.5 points and 11.4 rebounds in 2003-04. “I was a decent rebounder at Duke, at about eight or nine a game, and now I’m at around 11. I think my dedication to it has grown and my passion for being the best has grown. I’m also 20 pounds lighter, so I’m quicker on my feet and able to get those rebounds.”
Sixth Man - Manu Ginobili
San Antonio general manager R.C. Buford was the first from the Spurs to see Ginobili play in 1997 when Ginobili, then 19, was in Puerto Rico playing for the Argentine 22-and under team. "He wasn't their main guy, but he was very athletic and played with the same passion and effort you see today," Buford recently told USA Today.
A year later Ginobili was playing on the Argentine national team and in the Italian pro league. When the 1999 draft came around, the Spurs, with the second to last pick (57th) grabbed Ginobili with the idea of allowing him to develop overseas. “There wasn't anybody there where we were picking who was going to make our team, so we said, ‘Let's just draft Manu Ginobili,’” said Gregg Popovich. Two years later, Ginobili was one of the biggest stars in Europe. Today, he’s one of the NBA’s most versatile players.
Bench - Cuttino Mobley
Though the Rockets selected Mobley in the second round, they had targeted him prior to his senior season at Rhode Island. When he failed to distinguish himself at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, the Rockets believed they had a potential steal and celebrated his selection as much as their three first round picks in 1998 – Michael Dickerson, Bryce Drew and Mirsad Turkcan. And for good reason. Mobley started as a rookie in 1999 and was named to the All-Rookie Second Team. In his third season, he averaged 19.5 points.
“We saw a guy who could get all the way to the rim, a guy who could make a medium range jumpshot, a guy who could pull up and make a spot shot,” said Dennis Lindsey, the team’s player personnel director at the time. “He was respected defensively; he was long; he was a good shooter and good teammate.”
Bench - Mehmet Okur
Joe Dumars said had Okur been eligible for the 2002 draft instead of 2001, he would have been chosen in the lottery. Looking back at the top choices from 2001, the same could be said for that draft as well. The Pistons allowed Okur to stay in Europe in 2001-02, before bringing him over. An injury to Zeljko Rebraca opened up a spot in the rotation midway through the 2002-03 season and Okur made the most if it. He’s a restricted free agent this summer and will get several calls, though Dumars has vowed to keep this versatile big man in Detroit.
Bench - Ronald Murray
Grunfeld bristled at the notion that projecting Murray in the first round, which he and staff had done, was a stretch. Last season, of the 57 players selected in 2002, only three – Amare Stoudemire, Yao Ming and Boozer -- averaged more points than Murray (12.4 ppg). “The things I liked about Ronald were that he had good toughness, good athleticism. He was very competitive,” said Grunfeld. “Those are the kinds of things you can’t teach and are the hardest to measure.”
