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Highlights and Features
Inside The Numbers
By: Daryl Morey, SVP Operations and InformationMarch 25, 2005
As mentioned last column, you can beat an opponent one of two ways -- by scoring more points per shot attempt (efficiency), or by getting more attempted shots than your opponent. The Celtics have been winning this year by being one of the most efficient teams in the league, while their opponents have taken more shots.
However, during the current 11-2 stretch since Boston reacquired Antoine Walker, the team has been generating more shots than their opponents. Before the trade, the C’s were getting 2.4 fewer shots than their opponents, but since the trade, the Celtics have been getting 2.2 more shots than their opponents. What is the cause for the turnaround?
There are two primary ways for a team to generate more possessions: rebounding and turnovers. The turnover ratio is roughly even when comparing statistics before and after the trade. However, the team’s rebounding has improved dramatically.
Prior to the trade, the Celtics were being out-rebounded 69.5%-73.0% (-3.5%). This means that before the trade, the Celtics gathered 69.5% of available rebounds on their defensive end and their opponents gathered 73.0% of available rebounds on their defensive end. However, since the trade that brought ‘Toine to the Celtics, the team has been only slightly out-rebounded 70.7%-71.7% (-1.0%). And while Antoine has been the leading rebounder for the Celtics since the trade, averaging 8.8 rebounds per game, a look inside the numbers, reveals a far more complex story.
While lineups with Antoine have been extremely effective, outscoring opponents 1,024-979, it is mostly because when ‘Toine is in the lineup the team has been extremely efficient, generating 1.31 PPS while holding opponents to 1.26 PPS. Yet when Antoine is on the floor, the team is actually being out-rebounded by a similar margin to how the team was doing before the trade (-3.4%).
The real difference in rebounding has been due to the current mix of lineups Coach Rivers is putting out on the court without Antoine that have been out-rebounding opponents, and doing so by a 4.8% margin. Two players primarily responsible for this change have been Mark Blount and Al Jefferson. In particular, the new 2nd unit starting lineup of Banks, Blount, Davis, Jefferson and West has out-rebounded the opponent 72.5%-63.9% (+8.6%), and has also outscored opponents 103-80. Blount has 11 rebounds and Jefferson has 15 in that lineup, while West has added nine rebounds.
Therefore, it is Antoine’s efficient offensive game in the first unit, along with the addition of Delonte to the 2nd unit – combined with the play of Mark Blount on the 2nd unit – that has been the catalyst in helping the team improve to the 11-2 record since the trade deadline.
Next issue: the current Celtics team compared to past playoff teams in efficiency and attempts
