• 
• 
• Global
• Teams
  • Teams
  • Team Widgets
  • Team Sites
    • Atlanta
    • Milwaukee
    • Boston
    • Minnesota
    • Charlotte
    • New Jersey
    • Chicago
    • New Orleans
    • Cleveland
    • New York
    • Dallas
    • Oklahoma City
    • Denver
    • Orlando
    • Detroit
    • Philadelphia
    • Golden State
    • Phoenix
    • Houston
    • Portland
    • Indiana
    • Sacramento
    • LA Clippers
    • San Antonio
    • LA Lakers
    • Toronto
    • Memphis
    • Utah
    • Miami
    • Washington
• D-League
• WNBA
• Store

Inside the Numbers: The Prospects of Youth – Al Jefferson

By: Daryl Morey, SVP Operations and Information

June 3, 2005

Inside the Numbers will be looking over the summer at the key Celtics young players and what clues their performance to date may indicate about their future. We start with “Big Al” Jefferson, who is arguably generating the most buzz due to his fearless and instinctive low post play, combined with impressive touch from the outside and around the basket.

Minutes played, a statistic not normally focused on, is especially useful when evaluating the future prospects of a young player. Coaches are generally reluctant to play a young player, as they understand the significant impact that turnovers, fouls, and defensive lapses have on a team’s ability to win games. So when a young player does get significant minutes, it is a sign that his talent has impressed the coach enough to overcome the potential downside of youth.

Celtics Head Coach Doc Rivers played Big Al a total of 1,052 minutes this year (approximately 15 minutes per game) at the age of 19-20 (Al turned 20 on January 4th). If we take a look at the 48 players since 1986 that have played more than 1,000 minutes in an NBA season that they started before the age of 21, some potentially exciting trends are revealed for Jefferson.

Of the 48 players, 50% have become “stars” in the league and another 40% have become starters. Only 10% have not yet contributed in a significant way, often due to injury.

The players are separated into the three categories (star, starter, other) according to their peak NBA efficiency season over the course of their career after compiling the 1,000-minute season before age 21. This analysis would suggest that it is highly likely (90%+) that Al will develop into a solid starter or better for the Celtics, which is pretty impressive for a player picked 15th in the draft last year. The 15th pick in the draft has historically only had about a 1 in 3 chance of becoming a starter.

All 48 players are identified below:

Star	Starter	Other
Shareef Abdur-Rahim Gilbert Arenas Ron Artest Mike Bibby Carlos Boozer Elton Brand Kobe Bryant Baron Davis Kevin Garnett Shawn Kemp Andrei Kirilenko Rashard Lewis Stephon Marbury Jamal Mashburn Tracy McGrady Dirk Nowitzki Lamar Odom Shaquille O'Neal Joe Smith Jerry Stackhouse Amare Stoudemire Antoine Walker John Williams Chris Webber	Kwame Brown Tyson Chandler Jamal Crawford Eddy Curry Eddie Griffin Al Harrington Nene Hilario Larry Hughes Joe Johnson Corey Maggette Darius Miles Mike Miller Tony Parker Vladimir Radmonovic Jason Richardson Quentin Richardson Deshawn Stevenson Stromile Swift Tim Thomas	Jonathan Bender Keyon Dooling Dermarr Johnson Nikoloz Tskitishvili Dajuan Wagner

In fact, when you compare this group of 48 with ALL players who have played 1,000 minutes or more in the prior season, what distinguishes the young group is the much higher rate in which these players develop into stars. This data supports the common wisdom that to become a star in the NBA a player needs to get playing time when young. For Al, it seems the future is bright. An interesting final note is that Kendrick Perkins, who is only 2 months older than Al, has a shot at reaching the 1,000 minute milestone as well. Perkins will be only 20 years old when the 2005-06 season begins next fall.

Next issue: Daryl Morey will be back to re-evaluate the numbers after the 2005 NBA Draft.

previous issues »