What will 2010 free agency produce?
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This free agency week that perhaps heralds the birth of a new dynasty or champion reminds me of the time just before my son was born.
We were at the doctor, and the doctor said it could be any day. So we were told to just go home and relax. Relax!
We walked around a lot and went to malls, then walked around some more. I asked if it was time and my wife shook her head, “No,” and it seemed to just go on without any real signal.
So this is what I think is going on now: LeBron James, first, is calling around to all the guys who haven’t signed not named Dwyane Wade, trying to gauge their interest in joining him in Cleveland. The Cavs don’t have cap room, but can manufacture a sign-and-trade, and, as we know, they would do anything for their little poopsie Bronnie.
My guess is the Bulls have moved down a notch on LeBron’s list, with the Cavs first. The Nets are right there too, with the glamour of the Russian billionaire, Jay-Z, and that LeBron can move his empire to New York City, having the ability to just buzz over to the suburbs for games.
The question is how much improvement James needs to have to commit to return. Would Toronto accept a sign-and-trade? Would Utah do a sign-and-trade? Could the Cavs get Mike Miller and Matt Barnes to split a mid-level exception?
The larger question as it relates to the Bulls, I think, is the Wade/Bosh axis.
Clearly, Wade would like Bosh to accompany him to Miami and they are represented by the same agent and have been friends. Bosh likely wants a sign-and-trade because not only is Bosh no John Kennedy, he’s no Dwyane Wade, meaning five years from now, he may be Juwan Howard. So Bosh likely wants that sixth year in the bank and, thus, the sign-and-trade, which no way he gets to Miami for Michael Beasley.
The fatal flaw in Miami’s grand plan may have been this roster mayhem that’s left the Heat with Beasley and Mario Chalmers and, seemingly, a heck of a long way from competing.
Here’s the rub for the Bulls, though, which may not be as much problem for them as it is for me.
I could see Toronto doing a sign-and-trade with the Bulls dealing Bosh for Taj Gibson, three No. 1s and cash. But if you cannot get Wade with Bosh, I wouldn’t want Bosh for all that.
It means you have Bosh for six years as the second highest paid player in franchise history when he’s been associated with not much more than losing. He’s a nice piece, I agree, but if you give up Gibson and three No. 1s, I think you handicap yourself for the future too much. Bosh is a way better offensive player than Gibson, but a far worse defender, and not a pick-and-roll player.
Actually, Carlos Boozer would be better at pick-and-roll and likely wouldn’t cost you Gibson and the firsts. Bosh is better, but I’d rather have Boozer, Gibson and three firsts than Bosh.
But if Bosh can bring you Wade, as they seem to want to play together, then it’s a no-brainer. You do it. Wade and LeBron are the first-tier and it drops steeply from there.
If Bosh gets that sign-and-trade and sixth year, then he will make more than Wade. The Bulls will then be out of options for sign-and-trades. Sorry, no one is taking Luol Deng in that sort of transaction with four years left on his deal.
Could Wade not only give up the extra $30 plus million dollars by leaving Miami (sixth year salary plus now paying state taxes), but could he also then be second highest paid to Bosh? A few seasons later, Derrick Rose could pass him in salary as well. That’s a lot of ego to swallow when every one of his contemporaries will be playing for max money but him. And he’s Flash!
The best chance for the Bulls to get Wade might be if Bosh got a sign-and-trade to Cleveland, Houston, Dallas, Los Angels or somewhere else other than Miami. Could Pat Riley convince Wade he’s better off with that roster and Boozer? And what if Bosh goes, say, to Houston for the extra money? Then the Bulls or Nets get Boozer. David Lee?
It would seem then Wade would have given Miami its chance and they came up short, and he’d have to leave. The way he had to carry that team, Wade wouldn’t last two more seasons in the NBA with that roster. Heck, Beasley’s antics probably would send him into retirement in half that time.
If I were the Bulls, I’d love to have Wade and forget the second guy. Give Wade the max of approximately $16.5 million and then spend the rest on building depth. I can live with Gibson at four and pick up a solid veteran backup big man, maybe someone like Brendan Haywood.
I was early in this for getting Joe Johnson to team with Rose and then a similar plan. The point being: Get someone!
Obviously, Wade would be better, if it’s been a riskier effort. Johnson, as it happens, was out of play with Atlanta’s shocking max offer. The point was, have I mentioned this: Get someone! I think the Bulls would be just fine with one All-Star free agent to add to Rose. Once you have two guys the defense has to double, you have a chance. Going for three has been mostly fantasy basketball.
So it probably rests with Bosh for now.
This is what I’d do now if I could. I’d make the commitment to Boozer and hope I don’t have to spend a max salary. Then I go to Wade and give him 24 or 48 hours before I say I’m moving on for Haywood and the like. Or Mike Miller.
Would Bosh go to Miami without the sign-and-trade? Could Wade afford to take the chance to wait and then find himself without anywhere to go and a roster that might go back to adding Antoine Walker?
It’s not that big a difference, if he goes to Chicago for the full five-year max. And he’s probably in the best competitive position with Rose, Noah, Deng and Gibson. Then the Bulls can add someone like Haywood or bring back Brad Miller. Perhaps they make a deal for Andris Biedrins and take on some Golden State money so they can sell the team. There are a lot of interesting possibilities if you add one free agent and then play the field.
It may be time for the Bulls to try to deliver on that one.