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Sam Smith: Rewriting NBA Draft History

Taking a Look at Past NBA Drafts and What Did and Should’ve Happened


The contents of this page have not been reviewed or endorsed by the Chicago Bulls. All opinions expressed by Sam Smith are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of the Chicago Bulls or its Basketball Operations staff, parent company, partners, or sponsors. His sources are not known to the Bulls and he has no special access to information beyond the access and privileges that go along with being an NBA accredited member of the media.

What if you could go back in time, knowing then what you know now? Everyone fantasizes about doing that in their lives, because we all know we could have been smarter, or, at the very least, way more confident with our choices in life. Everyone has moments they wish they could change.

Sam Smith's draft guide

The NBA Draft is one of the most second-guessed events in sports because it is so inexact. When it comes to picking the right players, general managers have to measure a young kid who has often played against lesser competition and try to imagine how he will hold up and respond to bigger situations against better talent.

Now, let's get this straight - everyone makes mistakes. Some of them are really big ones. So if you're a NBA GM, in all honesty all you can really do is hope to get it right most of the time.

With the NBA Draft just a couple days away, I decided to take a look at the last 10 drafts and rerate each of them. We're essentially stepping back in history and rewriting the books. What would you do today if you had the chance to re-draft?

In doing this exercise, what I found most interesting is that a lot of team executives tend to have a pack mentality when it comes to the Draft. These men seem to follow the same set of guidelines, but some also tend to make the same mistakes over and over.

Basically, these appear to be the four main rules:

  1. If you're not sure what to do, pick the bigger guy.
  2. If you're really not sure what to do, go ahead and pick the guy with the biggest upside.
  3. If you're completely lost, go with the athlete.
  4. Don't ever step out of the box and try to be bold or innovative because you'll probably end up getting criticized by your peers, your team's fans and of course all the TV analysts, and worst yet, you may lose your job if your owner gets mad.

You see, it's much safer to do what everyone else does.

Of course, there are always exceptions to these rules and a good number of team bosses make some savvy moves. But like in life, it's usually safer and more socially acceptable to not rock the boat by staying in agreement with your peers.

It's perhaps why if you're a really smart evaluator, you'll find some top-notch players every now and then with a low first round or medium second round pick, while everyone else is busy trying to land a knockout punch. Too often teams spend their time trying to land an All-Star with every pick instead of securing solid players who can fill a needed role and be in the rotation.

The truth is it's virtually impossible to get it right even much of the time. Every team does an amazing amount of research on every player in the Draft. They give these guys all sorts of physical and psychological tests and explore their entire family backgrounds. But even with all that, one never really knows if a guy is going to work hard once you sign him to a multi-million dollar deal. Does he want to take the big shot or does he just want to be part of the background? Can he stand up to the public and media scrutiny and live the right life? Will he stay healthy? When it comes to the Draft, there's generally way more luck than skill involved.

Here's a look at the top 10 picks in the last 10 Drafts, along with a look at the top 10 in each of those same Drafts if I could do them today.


Derrick Rose Derrick Rose (Bill Smith/Chicago Bulls)

2008 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.Chicago BullsDerrick Rose
2.Miami HeatMichael Beasley
3.Minnesota TimberwolvesO.J. Mayo
4.Oklahoma City ThunderRussell Westbrook
5.Memphis GrizzliesKevin Love
6.New York KnickerbockersDanilo Gallinari
7.Los Angeles ClippersEric Gordon
8.Milwaukee BucksJoe Alexander
9.Charlotte BobcatsD.J. Augustin
10.New Jersey NetsBrook Lopez
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.Derrick Rose(#1 Chicago)
2.Brook Lopez(#10 New Jersey)
3.Michael Westbrook(#4 OKC)
4.Michael Beasley(#2 Miami)
5.O.J. Mayo(#3 Minnesota traded to Memphis)
6.Kevin Love(#5 Memphis traded to Minnesota)
7.Eric Gordon(#7 LA Clippers)
8.Jason Thompson(#12 Sacramento)
9.Anthony Randolph(#14 Golden State)
10.Courtney Lee(#22 Orlando)

Kevin Durant Kevin Durant (Bill Smith/Chicago Bulls)

2007 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.Portland Trail BlazersGreg Oden
2.Seattle SupersonicsKevin Durant
3.Atlanta HawksAl Horford
4.Memphis GrizzliesMichael Conley
5.Boston CelticsJeff Green
6.Milwaukee BucksYi Jianlian
7.Minnesota TimberwolvesCorey Brewer
8.Charlotte BobcatsBrandan Wright
9.Chicago BullsJoakim Noah
10.Sacramento KingsSpencer Hawes
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.Kevin Durant(#2 Seattle/OKC)
2.Al Horford(#3 Atlanta)
3.Greg Oden(#1 Portland)
4.Thaddeus Young(#12 Philadelphia)
5.Marc Gasol(#48 Lakers traded to Memphis)
6.Joakim Noah(#9 Chicago)
7.Glen Davis(#35 Seattle traded to Boston)
8.Jeff Green(#5 Boston traded to Seattle/OKC)
9.Al Thornton(#14 LA Clippers)
10.Rudy Fernandez(#24 Phoenix traded to Portland)

Brandon Roy Brandon Roy (Bill Smith/Chicago Bulls)

2006 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.Toronto RaptorsAndrea Bargnani
2.Chicago BullsLaMarcus Aldridge
3.Charlotte BobcatsAdam Morrison
4.Portland Trail BlazersTyrus Thomas
5.Atlanta HawksShelden Williams
6.Minnesota TimberwolvesBrandon Roy
7.Boston CelticsRandy Foye
8.Houston RocketsRudy Gay
9.Golden State WarriorsPatrick O'Bryant
10.Seattle SupersonicsMouhamed Saer Sene
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.Brandon Roy(#6 Minnesota traded to Portland)
2.LaMarcus Aldridge(#2 Chicago traded to Portland)
3.Rajon Rondo(#21 Phoenix traded to Boston)
4.Paul Millsap(#47 Utah)
5.Rudy Gay(#8 Houston traded to Memphis)
6.Andrea Bargnani(#1 Toronto)
7.Tyrus Thomas(#4 Portland traded to Chicago)
8.Randy Foye(#7 Boston traded to Minnesota)
9.Ronnie Brewer(#14 Utah)
10.Leon Powe(#49 Denver traded to Boston)

Chris Paul Chris Paul (Bill Smith/Chicago Bulls)

2005 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.Milwaukee BucksAndrew Bogut
2.Atlanta HawksMarvin Williams
3.Utah JazzDeron Williams
4.New Orleans HornetsChris PaulWake Forest
5.Charlotte BobcatsRaymond Felton
6.Portland Trail BlazersMartell Webster
7.Toronto RaptorsCharlie Villanueva
8.New York KnickerbockersChanning Frye
9.Golden State WarriorsIke Diogu
10.Los Angeles LakersAndrew Bynum
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.Chris Paul(#4 New Orleans)
2.Deron Williams(#3 Utah)
3.Danny Granger(#17 Indiana)
4.Andrew Bynum(#10 LA Lakers)
5.David Lee(#30 New York)
6.Monta Ellis(#40 Golden State)
7.Andrew Bogut(#1 Milwaukee)
8.Marvin Williams(#2 Atlanta)
9.Raymond Felton(#5 Charlotte)
10.Charlie Villanueva(#7 Toronto)

Dwight Howard Dwight Howard (Fernando Medina/NBAE/Getty Images)

2004 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.Orlando MagicDwight Howard
2.Charlotte BobcatsEmeka Okafor
3.Chicago BullsBen Gordon
4.Los Angeles ClippersShaun Livingston
5.Washington WizardsDevin Harris
6.Atlanta HawksJosh Childress
7.Phoenix SunsLuol Deng
8.Toronto RaptorsRafael Araujo
9.Philadelphia 76ersAndre Iguodala
10.Cleveland CavaliersLuke Jackson
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.Dwight Howard(#1 Orlando)
2.Al Jefferson(#15 Boston)
3.Emeka Okafor(#2 Charlotte)
4.Devin Harris(#5 Washington traded to Dallas)
5.Andre Iguodala(#9 Philadelphia)
6.Kevin Martin(#26 Sacramento)
7.Ben Gordon(#3 Chicago)
8.Andris Biedrins(#11 Golden State)
9.Luol Deng(#7 Phoenix traded to Chicago)
10.Jameer Nelson(#20 Denver traded to Orlando)

Dwyane Wade Dwyane Wade (Doug Benc/NBAE/Getty Images)

2003 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.Cleveland CavaliersLeBron James
2.Detroit PistonsDarko Milicic
3.Denver NuggetsCarmelo Anthony
4.Toronto RaptorsChris Bosh
5.Miami HeatDwyane Wade
6.Los Angeles ClippersChris Kaman
7.Chicago BullsKirk Hinrich
8.Milwaukee BucksT.J. Ford
9.New York KnickerbockersMichael Sweetney
10.Washington WizardsJarvis Hayes
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.LeBron James(#1 Cleveland)
2.Dwyane Wade(#5 Miami)
3.Carmelo Anthony(#3 Denver)
4.Chris Bosh(#4 Toronto)
5.David West(#18 New Orleans)
6.Josh Howard(#29 Dallas)
7.Kirk Hinrich(#7 Chicago)
8.Kendrick Perkins(#27 Memphis traded to Boston)
9.Leandro Barbosa(#28 San Antonio traded to Phoenix)
10.Boris Diaw(#21 Atlanta)

Yao Ming Yao Ming (Andrew Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images)

2002 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.Houston RocketsYao Ming
2.Chicago BullsJay Williams
3.Golden State WarriorsMike Dunleavy Jr.Duke
4.Memphis GrizzliesDrew GoodenKansas
5.Denver NuggetsNikoloz TskitishviliItaly
6.Cleveland CavaliersDujaun WagnerMemphis
7.New York KnickerbockersNene HilarioBrazil
8.Los Angeles ClippersChris WilcoxMaryland
9.Phoenix SunsAmare Stoudemire
10.Miami HeatCaron Butler
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.Yao Ming(#1 Houston)
2.Amare Stoudemire(#9 Phoenix)
3.Nene Hilario(#7 New York traded to Denver)
4.Caron Butler(#10 Miami)
5.Carlos Boozer(#35 Cleveland)
6.Tayshaun Prince(#23 Detroit)
7.Luis Scola(#56 San Antonio to Houston)
8.John Salmons(#26 San Antonio to Philadelphia)
9.Drew Gooden(#4 Memphis)
10.Roger Mason Jr.(#31 Chicago)

Tony Parker Tony Parker (Clarke Evans/NBAE/Getty Images)

2001 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.Washington WizardsKwame Brown
2.Los Angeles ClippersTyson Chandler
3.Atlanta HawksPau Gasol
4.Chicago BullsEddy Curry
5.Golden State WarriorsJason Richardson
6.Memphis GrizzliesShane Battier
7.New Jersey NetsEddie Griffin
8.Cleveland CavaliersDeSagana Diop
9.Detroit PistonsRodney White
10.Boston CelticsJoe Johnson
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.Tony Parker(#28 San Antonio)
2.Joe Johnson(#10 Boston)
3.Pau Gasol(#3 Atlanta traded to Memphis)
4.Richard Jefferson(#13 Houston traded to NJ)
5.Gilbert Arenas(#31 Golden State)
6.Shane Battier(#6 Memphis)
7.Gerald Wallace(#25 Sacramento)
8.Jason Richardson(#5 Golden State)
9.Tyson Chandler(#2 LA Clippers traded to Chicago)
10.Zach Randolph(#19 Portland)

Michael Redd Michael Redd (Gary Dineen/NBAE/Getty Images)

2000 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.New Jersey NetsKenyon MartinCincinnati
2.Vancouver GrizzliesStromile Swift
3.Los Angeles ClippersDarius Miles
4.Chicago BullsMarcus Fizer
5.Orlando MagicMike Miller
6.Atlanta HawksDerMarr Johnson
7.Chicago BullsChris Mihm
8.Cleveland CavaliersJamal Crawford
9.Houston RocketsJoel Przybilla
10.Orlando MagicKeyon Dooling
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.Michael Redd(#43 Milwaukee)
2.Hedo Turkoglu(#16 Sacramento)
3.Kenyon Martin(#1 New Jersey)
4.Mike Miller(#5 Orlando)
5.Jamal Crawford(#8 Cleveland traded to Chicago)
6.Joel Przybilla(#9 Houston to Milwaukee)
7.Quentin Richardson(#18 LA Clippers)
8.Desmond Mason(#17 Seattle)
9.DeShawn Stevenson(#23 Utah)
10.Morris Peterson(#21 Toronto)

Elton Brand Elton Brand (Jonathan Daniel/NBAE/Getty Images)

1999 Draft

How it happened
#TeamPlayer
1.Chicago BullsElton Brand
2.Vancouver GrizzliesSteve Francis
3.Charlotte HornetsBaron Davis
4.Los Angeles ClippersLamar Odom
5.Toronto RaptorsJonathan Bender
6.Minnesota TimberwolvesWally Szczerbiak
7.Washington WizardsRichard Hamilton
8.Cleveland CavaliersAndre Miller
9.Phoenix SunsShawn Marion
10.Atlanta HawksJason Terry
How it should've happened
#PlayerActual Pick
1.Elton Brand(#1 Chicago)
2.Richard Hamilton(#7 Washington)
3.Andre Miller(#8 Cleveland)
4.Lamar Odom(#4 LA Clippers)
5.Baron Davis(#3 Charlotte)
6.Andrei Kirilenko(#24 Utah)
7.Shawn Marion(#9 Phoenix)
8.Ron Artest(#16 Chicago)
9.Steve Francis(#2 Vancouver traded to Houston)
10.Jason Terry(#10 Atlanta)



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