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Shot Charts

But that is the key. This is the key: Red signifies below league average. Yellow means comparable to league average. Green represents above league average. On these shot charts.

It seems impossible now and don’t quote me on it, but the Bucks will miss a shot this season. Hopefully the misters will keep misses low.

With that in mind, here is the annual shot chart story, where we examine the best and worst parts of the court from which each player can shoot… and then deliver some recommendations-slash-observations. The usual caveats apply. Namely, that it is never as simple as shooting more from the desired areas.

Sad as it is, Giannis cannot dunk the ball on every possession, despite his unassailable (100.0%) conversion rate. The low-percentage shots are often easier to find than the high-percentage shots. And players with the ball at the end of the shot clock, for example, often see their accuracy numbers inevitably dip. Post players tend to have prettier shot charts and shooting numbers, but again, Giannis cannot dunk the ball on every possession (probably).

And apologies: To the rookies, to Jabari Parker, Damien Inglis and Johnny O’Bryant. Coming Soon: NBA shot charts for you.

All shot charts are from NBA.com and from 2013-14.

Notes: Antetokounmpo has the shot chart tendencies of a highly efficient offensive player, with almost all of his rookie year shots coming from the best places: either around the basket or beyond the 3-point line (or at the earned free throw line). He almost never attempted long twos (a good habit). Oddly, for someone who often hung out in the corners on offense, he also managed to virtually never attempt corner threes (something to work on). He is already a full terror in transition, and figures to only improve on last season’s already-solid 50.6 percent mark around the basket. The percentages inside and out should go up this season, but the volume of shots should also go up. If Summer League is an indication (and who really knows, with Summer League), the sophomore may just be primed to take a more assertive role in the halfcourt… and an even more dominant role in the open court.

Notes: He offers a solid in-between, mid-range, off-the-dribble game. Particularly in those green spots shading just right and left of center, where Bayless is highly efficient. His long-range shooting improved greatly after moving from Memphis (30.1%) to Boston (41.8%) last season. Look for him in that right three corner – Bayless has carried an above-league-average mark from that spot each of the past four seasons. 

Notes: Dudley plays to his strengths on the perimeter. The righty attempted 149 threes from the right side (where he shot 41.6%) compared to just 55 three attempts from the left side (where he shot 27.2%). Looking back at his career trends, the splits are not quite so extreme, though he absolutely prefers the right side. As noted in our profile of Dudley, he rated as the NBA’s sixth-best shooter from 16-22 feet (50.0%) last season, and he is very good in that range from everywhere except straight on. He also hit those ever-difficult 8-16 footers at a nice clip last season. And he strung together three straight seasons as an above-average finisher near the basket until last season, when he still converted at a respectable rate.

Notes: Before you lament the coloring here too much, note that Henson virtually never shot outside of the area closest to the basket. And his 59.0 percent mark in that range rates as best among players in this story (other than Chris Wright, who only played eight games). Henson’s go-to hook shot (239 hooks attempted, exclamation point) improved in accuracy from 47.1 percent as a rookie to 53.1 percent as a sophomore. If he bumps that percentage up another six percentage points this season, people will be writing stories about his hook shot, and that will be nice. But there is pressure to do just that, because Henson plays just about exclusively inside 16 feet.

Notes: This is not a good/fun representation of Ilyasova as a shooter. Bothered throughout the year by a right ankle injury suffered in preseason, the 2013-14 campaign was his worst since he suited up as a 19 year-old rookie back in 2006-07. At his best, he is a masterfully dangerous half of a pick-and-pop game, a deadly 3-point shooter from straight on as well as shading right and left. Ilyasova had never been a high-volume 3-point shooter, but for two seasons in a row before last year, he was one of the most accurate in the world. Inside the arc, he is a difficult cover in the mid-range, standing 6-9 and tending to fade up and away from hoop. And he is a stretch four, not an offensive post player, but would nonetheless be well-suited to bring that shooting percentage around the hoop into the 50s.

Notes: In his third pro season, Knight last year posted his best accuracy around the hoop (51.8%) and his worst accuracy from beyond the arc (32.5%). As a rookie, he converted 38.0 percent from deep, and if he can combine the best of both of these inside and outside worlds, there is a real plus offensive player in the making here. Especially because the 22 year-old’s free throw rate keeps going up each year, and because he is now channeling some of his speed into logical corner-turning toward the hoop, where he attempted more shots than ever last year.

Notes: If this heat map included specific shot marks, you would see that many of Marshall’s 3-point attempts were from a step, two steps, or even three or four steps beyond the arc. This stems largely from his deliberate shot release, with the space in between him and the defender affording him the time and comfort to convert a tidy 39.9 percent last year. This 3-point proficiency added a much-needed wrinkle to the offensive arsenal of one of the best passers in the league.

Notes: First thing that stands out here is that Mayo actually prefers the left side of the 3-point line to the right, unlike anyone else covered so far. And this is not just a sample size thing; Mayo has been in the green there for three straight seasons. He started last season on a roll from outside, and despite cooling considerably, finished at a solid (yet below career average) 37.0 percent on threes. But that 47.6 percent mark near the hoop was the lowest of his career, and he didn’t get to the basket a lot. He is 26. He could get back there.

Notes: Sure, Middleton shot an identical 44.0 percent from the field in each of his first and second pro seasons, but his efficiency moved in a positive direction thanks to a 3-point shooting mark that boosted from 31.1 percent to 41.4 percent. As a rookie, he went 1-for-6 on right side threes. Last year he went 41-for-82 from that same spot. His quick release on corner threes gives him room for a clear shot before defenses collapse, and he is a fantastic open shooter. Can he transform into a threat off the dribble and around the basket? That might be the next evolution in a quest to develop from an excellent niche offensive player to an all-around talent. Or perhaps he is better off specializing even further, into one of the game’s most feared outside shooters. There are a couple attractive routes here.

Notes: My favorite part of his return to Milwaukee last season was Pachulia’s out-of-the-blue assault on the free throw leaderboard. It was one of those weird, unforeseen developments that gave a charm to the season. As a rookie 10 years earlier, he converted 64.4 percent at the line. Last season, he was in the 90s into February, and finished at 84.6 percent. I bring this up now, reminded that shooting is excessively and exceedingly more difficult with defenders, as his 25.0 percent mark near the free throw area during live action demonstrates. Pachulia’s offensive contributions – screening, passing, free throw shooting – don’t show up in this chart. He hovered near 50.0 percent around the hoop for the past five seasons before last. Hopefully he can bring that back up, because he is a center after all.

Notes: Sanders played a career-low 584 minutes last season, and so the sample size for this shot chart is not so indicative. For all the imploring of Sanders to develop a jumper going into last season, the more important progression remains simply to develop an expertise at finishing near the hoop. If he can do that, like Tyson Chandler once did, Sanders will be just fine. And for those in the mood to get excited about things, keep in mind: Sanders went for 25 points and 15 rebounds in his last full game last year, too long ago.

Notes: Threes were impossible until February or so, but Wolters provided some reason to hope by finishing the year on a 15-32 (46.8%) roll from outside. As far as around the basket, only Henson, Dudley and Wright bettered his 52.5 percent mark, a really encouraging number for a rookie point guard… particularly because he frequently found paths to the basket, with more than half of his field goal attempts coming in that area.

Notes: Of his 21 field goals made, eight were dunks. Of his 21 field goals made, 20 were around the hoop. Chris Wright gets paid to dunk basketballs, which is not the easiest thing to do.