Will LaMarcus Aldridge end up as Portland's All-Time leading scorer? Which Western Conference team is poised to make a playoff push in 2014? And are the Warriors a more serious threat in the playoffs than the Trail Blazers? Seven local reporters who eat, sleep, and breathe Trail Blazers basketball give their take in this week's edition of Running The Break.
1. ESPN's Tom Haberstroh recently wrote an article claiming the Warriors are a more serious threat than the Trail Blazers, citing health and point-differential as his main arguments. Based upon what you've seen so far this season, which squad do you feel is the more serious threat in the West?
Casey Holdahl (@Chold), TrailBlazers.com: I think, all things considered, the Trail Blazers and Warriors are fairly even. Golden State's starting unit might be marginally better than Portland's, but the Trail Blazers have the better bench. And Golden State has some playoff experience, which might not be much, but it's still more than Portland. I really don't think there's much difference between the two and I think a playoff series would be a coin flip.
Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes), CSNNW.com: I’d have to go with the Warriors due to the fact they were eliminated in the second round of the playoffs last year and then they acquire Andre Iguodala in the offseason to help with advancement. Put aside that they’re the hottest team in the league right now, I just feel that they’re equipped to make a deep playoff run because they’ve experienced postseason success. Despite Portland’s surprise start, if they were to get knocked out in the first round it wouldn’t be considered a disappointment because no one expected them to be this good this early.
Mike Tokito (@mtokito), The Oregonian: How about we put the two teams in a seven-game series and find out? It would be fun, high-scoring and played at two great home arenas, plus it would be easy travel for us in the media.
Otherwise, it gets silly to suppose how a team would do if its injury-prone players are healthy. Brandon Roy and Greg Oden with healthy knees, anyone?
Erik Gundersen (@BlazerBanter), The Columbian: I hate to go with the old cliche, but this Warriors team has experience winning in the playoffs and the Blazers don't. The Warriors "#FullSquad" starting line-up of Andrew Bogut-David Lee-Andre Iguodala-Klay Thompson and Steph Curry is outscoring opponents my more than 20 points per 100 possessions. While Portland's starting line-up has been one of the best in the league, the Warriors line-up has been better. The Blazers still have time to prove the doubters wrong, but the Warriors defend better than Portland. The Warriors haven't been the beneficiaries of good health for most of the season but are still more consistent on defense than the Blazers who have been healthy, with the exception of C.J. McCollum for the whole season.
Mike Acker (@mikeacker), Willamette Week: The NBA season is long, and teams get hot all the time. A hot team gets a lot of press: Portland did at the start of the season with their huge winning streak and the Warriors are getting it now with theirs. That doesn’t necessarily mean Golden State is a serious contender because they are currently streaking and the Blazers aren’t because they’ve cooled off just a little bit over the last week and change. Personally, I believe the Blazers and the Warriors are relatively even when it comes to the level of contender they might be, regardless of injury or anything like that. Golden State is a great team with a strong young core that can definitely win a playoff series. Portland, in my mind, is that too. The difference will probably come down to whether one team can get home court in the first round (or beyond). The Warriors have a strong home court advantage, just like the Blazers. Either team can reach the Conference Finals if they start their playoff run at home.
Dave Deckard (@blazersedge), BlazersEdge: I have a confession to make. Despite covering the Blazers and the league professionally I don’t have an ESPN Insider account. It’d be useful if I wanted to write, say, 130 articles about the Heat, Lakers, or Knicks but for Blazers coverage the info and analysis from folks participating in this project alone blows away any national coverage. So I haven’t read Mr. Haberstroh’s piece.
I’m not entirely impressed by his claim that “when healthy” the Warriors are 15-3. If the Blazers had been injury-free the last six years they’d have a couple of titles by now. Also 15-3 isn’t that much better than the Blazers, Spurs, and Thunder are doing without the qualifier.
The threat of injury is a legitimate concern for the Blazers. They’re clicking on all cylinders right now. What happens when one of those cylinders blows? I’d concede that an injury to the starting lineup could easily drop Portland to Golden State’s level. But that doesn’t mean the Warriors are more or less legitimate than the Blazers.
Margin of victory usually sorts out elite teams from pretenders but like plus-minus, it’s one of those stats that needs to percolate before becoming indicative. I don’t lend it much credence before the All-Star break. Besides as we speak Portland’s average margin of victory is a couple points higher than Golden State’s mark so I’m not sure what the point is there.
I don’t see any basis right now to say the Warriors are superior to Portland. Neither one of them will be title favorites. Either one could make a nice run. Both will have to show it in order to gain credit.
2. Thursday night, the Trail Blazers connected 21 times from distance against the Bobcats, becoming the first team in NBA history to make 20+ 3-pointers twice in the same season. With 49 games remaining, do you envision Portland racking up over 20 3-pointers again? And is the NBA All-Time record (23 made 3-pointers) in jeopardy?
Deckard: Why not? Coach Stotts has gone beyond giving his guys the green light. He’s the guy behind them at the intersection honking his horn. Have you seen the Blazers take an open three this year that actually looked like a bad idea? During the course of the regular season you’ll always run into defenses that aren’t capable, don’t care, or don’t adjust their scheme for outlying, specialty teams like the Blazers.The Blazers should take advantage of such every time they see it.
3. It's early in the season still, but give the readers one bold statement for the Trail Blazers in 2014 ...
Deckard: The 2014 Blazers will go down with the 1977-79 and 1989-92 squads as the most fun teams to watch in the history of the franchise. Terry Stotts will walk away with Coach of the Year.
4. Back on December 30th, LaMarcus Aldridge surpassed 10,000 career points as a Trail Blazer and currently sits fifth on the all-time scoring list as of this writing (January 3rd, 2014). Will he catch Clyde Drexler and The Glide's 18,040 points for most ever in the red and black before it's all said and done?
The only way Aldridge has a chance of catching Drexler would be if he re-signs with the Blazers after his contract expires at the end of next season, which would take him to 12 or 13 seasons, and even then it will be hard. Aldridge doesn’t shoot threes, and Drexler scored 1,392 points with Portland – a full season’s worth of points -- on threes
Deckard: If he remains a Blazer, easily. He’s one contract away from hitting that mark.
5. Which Western Conference team, currently not in the Top 8, do you foresee making a push in 2014? Conversely, which squad in the top-half of the standings do you see dropping out? One thing to note: As of this writing (January 3rd, 2014), no team in the bottom-half of the West has a winning record in their last 10 games.
As for who falls out, I'll say the Mavericks, only because I'm not going to spend any more time doubting the Suns, who currently sit one spot above Dallas in the seventh spot.
I still can’t see Phoenix sustaining this level of play so they are my team I expect to plummet. I’ve been counting them out all season and they have yet to agree with me in opting to tank for this deep draft class coming up. They’re well coached and management is top notch. It’s just difficult for me to see that roster playing in May. But hey, I really didn’t think the Blazers would be either.
Deckard: Minnesota is the easy pick for the former. I like the Pelicans but I worry about that backcourt meshing. Falling out of the bracket? Maybe Phoenix. I’m not sure anything is settled anywhere in the conference yet though. It’s as interesting of a year as we’ve seen in a decade.