Running The Break: April 18, 2014

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How should the Trail Blazers defend Dwight Howard? Who are the X-Factors? What team wins the series and in how many games? Six local reporters who eat, sleep, and breathe Trail Blazers basketball give their take in this week's edition of Running The Break.

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1. To put it simply, Dwight Howard has been a monster this year when facing the Trail Blazers. In four games against Portland, the eight-time All-Star is averaging 25.5 points, on 63.3-percent shooting, 13.5 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 1 steal. Should the Blazers send double-teams at Howard, forcing Houston’s outside shooters to beat them from beyond the arc, or defend him one-on-one?

Casey Holdahl (@Chold), TrailBlazers.com: I think you at least start by having Robin Lopez defend Dwight Howard one-on-one and see how it goes. Lopez is able to slow Howard down even in the slightest, I think you stick with it. The Rockets have too many threats on the perimeter to get away with throwing double teams at Howard regularly, though I'm sure you'll see the Trail Blazers send a second defender situationally. I just think you're better off staying home on James Harden, Chandler Parsons and Terrence Jones than you are trying to force Howard into turnovers and bad shots with double teams.

Chris Haynes (@ChrisBHaynes), CSNNW.com: The way, in which players are stroking the outside shot nowadays, you’d rather give up a contested inside shot than a wide-open three-point shot, especially when talking about the shooters Houston has at its exposal. The same goes for Portland and the way LaMarcus Aldridge will probably be played. Unless Howard is dominating the offensive end and Portland finds itself trying to climb a huge deficit, that’s when it’s probably time to send a double. I expect the Trail Blazers to mix it up when bringing help, keeping Howard guessing. But I would think the plan is to play him straight up, for the most part.

Erik Gundersen (@BlazerBanter), The Columbian: The best option defensively would be that the Blazers just let Lopez take his lumps against Dwight and not to double-team. Dwight's post-ups and his play against Portland will likely be a concern but Portland would be best served playing straight up and not letting three-point shooters or cutters off the ball beat them. For my money, the Blazers are better off with the ball in Dwight's hands than in the hands of James Harden.

Mike Acker (@mikeacker), Willamette Week: The question of how to defend Dwight Howard is basically the key to the series. It makes sense to send double teams at him to keep him from getting easy baskets, but Houston has a ton of great shooters and they will make the Blazers pay if they are left open. So defending Dwight one-on-one might be the way to go, but the Blazers need Robin Lopez on the court. Robin’s going to pick up a lot of fouls going one-on-one with Dwight. Lopez is too valuable for that. If it were my game to plan, I would say make Dwight beat you from the free throw line. The problem with the Hack-a-Dwight strategy is that coaches don’t commit to it long enough. If Dwight makes a free throw or too, you shouldn’t stop fouling him, you should keep fouling him, math says that if he makes four in a row then at some point later in the game he is going to miss four in a row. Making Dwight consistently make free throws is the way to beat Houston.

Dave Deckard (@blazersedge), BlazersEdge: I don’t think you can pick one or the other. Playoff series involve multiple adjustments. As soon as something works the other team counters it. You can’t get caught playing yesterday’s strategy. You have to anticipate how the opponent will adjust, keeping a step ahead of him. The Blazers will likely start out single-covering Howard but they may have to adapt in-game depending on how Houston’s shooters fare. I’ll be surprised if their Game 3 strategy looks the same as in Game 1.

SlyPokerDog (@SlyPokerDog), RipCityTwo.com: You have to do a little of both. Mix it up a little to throw him off of his game as best as you can. Also if Lopez gets into foul trouble you’re going to have to do it because Freeland while a good defender is not going to be able to handle Howard.

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2. Nicolas Batum said his matchup against Chandler Parsons can be the key to the series. Is the Small Forward battle the ultimate X-Factor in deciding which team will survive and advance?

Deckard: If you qualify “X-Factor” as “thing that’s not so important but could develop”, then yes. But if you start ranking factors in terms of absolute importance, Batum on Parsons sits way down the list. Houston will run the ball through Harden, Howard, and Beverley/Lin before they start asking Parsons to go one-on-one versus Nic. How the Blazers and Batum run their help/rotation defense will be far more important than any mano-a-mano contest between the small forwards. To the extent that Parsons becomes significant (and he could!) it’ll be playing off of his teammates. His success, or lack thereof, probably won’t have much to do with Batum’s individual defense.

SlyPokerDog: Batum will be a big part of it. The Blazers will need a motivated and engaged Batum to win but the X-Factor of the series will be Lillard. If he can handle the pressure of Beverley while still scoring the Blazers will be in good shape.

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3. In Portland’s lone victory over Houston this season LaMarcus Aldridge went off for 31 points (12-22 FG) and 25 rebounds in 41 minutes of action. Does Aldridge need to play at that level over the course of the series for the Trail Blazers to move on in the postseason?

Deckard: There’s no way he can play at that level for 4-7 games, so the Blazers better hope not! But Aldridge is Portland’s key advantage. He’s averaged 27 points and 16 rebounds against the Rockets this year, well above his overall marks. Damian Lillard, by contrast, is averaging 19 points and 5 assists, slightly below his usual pace. Lillard also shoots 39% against Houston, well below normal. Throw in Lillard’s defensive struggles and you realize that if Aldridge doesn’t spearhead Portland’s attack they’ll have a hard time gaining a firm beachhead. The Blazers will depend on contributions from different players each night, but LaMarcus provides the foundation that makes those contributions count.

SlyPokerDog: Yes. Our all-star needs to play at an all-star level for this team to advance to the second round. This series is on him. He asked Olshey for a center, he publicly stated he wanted to get back to the playoffs. We’re here. Now it’s up to him.

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4. Name two reserves (one from each team) that could have an unexpected impact on the outcome of the series:

As for Robinson, he's distilled his game down to what he does best and has mostly cut out the rest. He's played arguably the best basketball of his still young NBA career in the last two months and is hitting jumpers in or near the paint with some consistency. Energy off the bench is one of Robinson's greatest strengths, and playing against the team that most recently traded him is sure to add a little fuel to T-Rob's fire.

For the Rockets… Terrance Jones is a starter, but he could be an impact player nobody is expecting much from. How about Omer Asik? If he plays, he’ll be a tough cover for Thomas Robinson and/or Joel Freeland. Probably an unexpected impact of a player like Asik is that he’ll absorb at least a couple fouls from Robinson and/or Freeland, fouls the Blazers are going to desperately need to use on Dwight Howard, fouls that Robin Lopez can afford to give up to Dwight Howard.

Deckard: For the Blazers you have to look at Thomas Robinson and maybe Dorell Wright. They may need to play small-ball against Howard and Omer Asik. Those two have the potential to make the Houston bigs run around. For the Rockets you have to look at Jeremy Lin going up against Portland’s point guards, plus his potential to hit outside shots off of the play of the stars.

SlyPokerDog: Mo Williams for the Blazers, his deep playoff experience will be invaluable for the team and could end up being the series 2nd MVP behind LaMarcus.

Jeremy Lin for the Rockets, with Beverley being seriously banged up he will to play longer minutes and get the ball to his scorers.

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5. Lastly, who wins the series and in how many games?

Deckard: Those matchup problems are tough for Portland. Houston in 6.

SlyPokerDog: This series will go the distance with the Blazers winning it on the road.