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Powell: Regression 'Would Make As Much Sense As What Happened Last Season'

With training camp just a week away, there should be a steady influx of stories over the next few week recapping the changes to Portland's roster while handicapping their fortunes for the upcoming season. Shaun Powell posted just such a story over at NBA.com this weekend as a part of their "30 Teams In 30 Days" campaign, which has some good general information, though some of the conclusions seem a bit suspect. For instance...

I would not at all be surprised if Allen Crabbe finds his way into the starting lineup at some point this season, but if he doesn't, it'll have much more to do with the play of Evan Turner and Moe Harkless than Lillard and McCollum. Crabbe could very well end up being Portland's designated 6th man, but whoever starts on the wing is a question that I would imagine will be answered during training camp and preseason.

And by the way, it's going to get real old hearing "X highest-paid player franchise history" over and over again about players who signed a new contracts this offseason.

In regards to Evan Turner...

There's no question that Turner is prolific mid-range scorer, but to say does his damage offensively "strictly" in the mid-range is going a bit overboard. Last season, Turner attempted 296 mid-range shots, which is quite a few, but he also took 374 shots combined in the restricted area and in the paint. So while it's fair to call Turner a mid-range shooter, he's technically taking (not to mention making) more shots at or near the rim.

But these are minor quibbles, as the real twist of the knife comes at the end...

I mean, not really! If your analysis at this time last season was little more than "They lost four starters so they're screwed!" then yes, seeing the Trail Blazers finish the year by making the second round as the fifth seed probably didn't make much sense to your eyes. But for those who went into a bit more detail and really looked at the talent on the roster, Portland's season, while still somewhat surprising (though due in part to other teams in the West struggling), wasn't exactly a shock. Now to be clear, that doesn't mean the Trail Blazers are immune from regressing, but the notion that they're just as likely to under-perform this season because they over-performed last season (which again, is debatable) is rather questionable.