Turner, not Wall, could end up as Draft's top pick

The consensus No. 1 Draft pick just got a little not-so-consensus.

An entire college season of Kentucky's electric point guard John Wall being the presumed first selection, and by an easy margin according to some accounts, has given way to the post-tournament read by one NBA executive that Ohio State's ultra-versatile Evan Turner could be the top choice on June 24. Not only that, the front-office veteran said, but colleagues with other teams are privately making the same observation.

This is far from an opinion sweeping the league. The belief by most was that Wall was the No. 1 pick from the instant his freshman season began with great hype and he held the ranking through his announcement Wednesday that he was one-and-done. But it does suggest the issue could turn out to be a much more interesting race than anyone would have imagined a month ago, and increases the intrigue of the next 2 ½ months.

"I wouldn't say it's necessarily like Blake Griffin last year, where 30 teams would have taken him No. 1," the executive said of Griffin, last season's No. 1 overall pick. "Evan Turner is a hell of a player. You could certainly say he'd be a better pro right away [than Wall]."

A unique set of circumstances, more than any drop by Wall, is forcing the issue. The Jazz could draw No. 1 with the Knicks' unprotected pick acquired in a 2004 trade, and Utah already has All-Star Deron Williams. The Hornets -- though they're long shots -- could win the lottery, and they have All-Star Chris Paul. The Bulls, still not out of the playoff race, could get the right combination of ping-pong balls if they do miss the postseason, and they have All-Star Derrick Rose. The Kings could get No. 1, and they have Rookie of the Year favorite Tyreke Evans.

That's three All-Star point guard and one rising star of such immediate impact that Team USA is considering adding him to the roster of players vying for a spot in the world championships this summer. That doesn't even get into the teams with heavy investments at point guard -- the Nets have All-Star Devin Harris and the Timberwolves have Jonny Flynn (and Ricky Rubio stashed overseas).

Obviously Harris, Flynn or Rubio could be traded if New Jersey or Minnesota gets the top spot and understandably swoons for Wall, and Rubio isn't expected to leave Spain for the NBA next season anyway. But the dynamics do potentially change if any of those six teams win the lottery as opposed to, say the Wizards or 76ers, who will obviously be point-guard shopping.

Turner is a Brandon Roy-type, a ball handler at 6-foot-7 and projected to also be able to play shooting guard and small forward. The Associated Press national Player of the Year, despite missing a month with broken bones in his back from a nasty fall, would be much more of a natural fit the Jazz, Hornets and Bulls who will want to win immediately rather than take Wall and weigh trade offers. Which also brings Option No. 3 into play: Win the lottery, don't take either Wall or Turner, and trade the pick to acquire veterans while putting a new team at the top of the Draft.

Wall is the type of talent that would generate tremendous trade interest. He has point-guard instincts, speed, athleticism and size at 6-foot-4, and an assist-to-turnover ratio of less than 2-1 (31-16) in four games of his first tournament experience did nothing to sway the belief that he can be a dominant point guard at the next level.

"I've seen him enough," said one general manager who has Wall as the No. 1. "He hasn't done anything to take his game down or lose his positioning in the draft."

Not even with an underwhelming postseason.

"Too many guys have a good tournament, get drafted and can't live up to it," he said.

Said another talent evaluator: "I think he's farther along than Derrick Rose as a freshman. That's a pretty good barometer."

A very good one. Now to see if it's good enough to keep him at No. 1 in the draft.

Scott Howard-Cooper has covered the NBA since 1988. You can e-mail him here.

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