
Posted Nov 11 2010 11:17AM - Updated Nov 11 2010 12:34PM
It's still early in the season, but as each day goes by, we can start to draw more conclusions about players and teams we're watching. There are fluky results, but as more and more data is compiled, the flukes have less effect on overall numbers.
Through Wednesday, there are three teams in playoff position that weren't in the playoffs last season. In the East, the Indiana Pacers are tied for sixth place with a 3-3 record. In the West, the New Orleans Hornets (7-0) are tied for first and the Golden State Warriors (6-2) are in fifth.
And yes, the West is still stronger than the East from top to bottom. The West is 24-11 in inter-conference games thus far and has eight teams over .500. The East has just four.
| Five most improved defenses (points allowed per 100 possessions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Pacers should certainly be encouraged by their start, but their early results aren't too convincing. They have the third-most improved offense in the league, but that's largely due to Tuesday's blowout of the Nuggets and
those 20 straight shots they made in the third quarter. From that one game, the Pacers went from 28th to 13th in the league offensively.
The Hornets and Warriors, on the other hand, have made strides on the other end of the floor, and they've done it more consistently. That's why their improvement is more
95.1 points allowed per 100 possessions (2nd in the league)
The Hornets have to be the biggest surprise of the season, not only because they missed the playoffs by 13 games last season, but also because they were awful (only one team was worse statistically) in the preseason.
Chris Paul is healthy and playing inspired basketball and Emeka Okafor is shooting 73 percent, but the Hornets' defense has been the biggest key to their hot start.
New Orleans has the most improved defense in the league, allowing 12.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than they allowed last season, when they were 22nd. Only Miami (93.9) has been better.
Seven games is a small sample size and three of the Hornets' wins have come against teams currently ranked in the bottom four of the league offensively. But the other four have come against top-10 offensive teams. This is no fluke. On average, the Hornets have held their opponents to 7.5 points per 100 possessions less than that team's average.
| Hornets' defensive profile | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Def. Rat. = Points allowed per 100 possessions OEFG% = Opponents effective field-goal percentage DReb % = Defensive rebounding percentage OTO/Poss = Opponents turnovers per possessions OFTA/Poss = Opponents free throw attempts per possession O3P% = Opponents 3-point percentage O2P% = Opponents 2-point percentage |
As you can see from the table, the Hornets are improved across the board. Having Paul healthy and in the top five in the league in steals helps, but it's been the team's defense at the arc and in the paint that has been most critical.
A word of caution: The Hornets have the seventh-most improved offense in the league and rank 16th there overall. That's not great, but it's good enough to keep them near the top of the standings if they remain a top five defensive team. One problem is that no team has been getting a greater percentage of their points from mid-range shots. Those are the most inefficient shots, so there's a good chance that the Hornets, who currently rank 12th in effective field-goal percentage, will fall off offensively at
102.9 points allowed per 100 possessions (13th)
For the first time since 2007, it's OK to enjoy the offensive exploits of Monta Ellis without the guilt that comes with watching defenseless Nellie-ball. The Warriors actually care about defense and are the third-most improved defensive team from last season, when they ranked 29th.
| Warriors' defensive profile | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Def. Rat. = Points allowed per 100 possessions OEFG% = Opponents effective field-goal percentage DReb % = Defensive rebounding percentage OTO/Poss = Opponents turnovers per possessions OFTA/Poss = Opponents free throw attempts per possession O3P% = Opponents 3-point percentage O2P% = Opponents 2-point percentage |
Like New Orleans, Golden State's defensive numbers have improved both on the perimeter and on the interior. But they do look a little less sustainable than those of the Hornets.
The Warriors have played just two top-10 offensive teams. Their loss to the Lakers (No. 1 offense) was L.A.'s second-least efficient game of the season, but the Warriors' season-opening, 132-128 win over the Rockets (No. 10) was all about offense.
They've held four of their eight opponents under their average efficiency, but only two under a point per possession. Like the Pacers, their numbers are a bit skewed by one particular game -- an 85-79 win over the Jazz last Friday.
Still, it's clear that finally there is a conscious effort on the Warriors' part to pay some attention on 'D.' We know that they're going to be a potent offensive team -- they currently rank eighth, scoring 106.2 points per 100 possessions -- so, unlike the Hornets, they don't need to be great defensively to compete for a playoff spot. Any improvement over the atrocious defense they've been playing for the last few seasons is a good thing.
John Schuhmann is a staff writer for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here and follow him on twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.

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