Varejao makes his case to be second in line for Cavs' MVP

The Numbers Game has already upset Kobe Bryant supporters enough , so when describing LeBron James, we'll just call him the best player in the Eastern Conference. And clearly, he's the most valuable (in the East) as well. The Cavs would not be very good without him.

The position of second-most valuable player on the Cavs is up for debate, though. Mo Williams was an All-Star last year and is the team's second-leading scorer. Shaquille O'Neal's numbers are easily the lowest of his career, but his presence has been critical in wins over the Magic and Lakers.

As this season progresses, the argument for Anderson Varejao becomes stronger. The 6-foot-11 power forward from Brazil averages just 8.1 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, but he's a +326 this season, ranking him first in the league in raw plus-minus. His +14.9 per 48 minutes is also tops in the league among qualified players.

Having James as a teammate obviously helps Varejao's plus-minus numbers. But this season, Varejao is coming off the bench, playing behind J.J. Hickson. Cavs coach Mike Brown values Varejao's presence more, but believes that he can get away with Hickson on the floor to start each half with the first unit easier than putting him out there for seven minutes a half with the reserves.

As a result, Varejao isn't playing as many minutes with James as he did last season. In 2008-09, 81 percent of Varejao's minutes were with James on the floor. This season, that number is down to 75 percent, making his plus-minus excellence more impressive.

As can be expected, Varejao makes more of an impact on defense, but also makes a big difference offensively.

Defensively, Varejao is excellent at both one-on-one and help defense. Offensively, he's certainly not the most skilled power forward, but he plays with energy and knows where to be on the floor. You don't have to shoot, make a pass or even set a screen to increase your team's ability to score. And Varejao is one of those guys whose value goes well beyond his traditional stats.

Of course, the large discrepancy between the Cavs' numbers with Varejao on the court and off it has a lot to do with Hickson and his inexperience. The two power forwards have been on the floor together at times, but they've largely substituted for each other.

The Cavs have had the same starting lineup for the last 22 games: Williams, Anthony Parker, James, Hickson and O'Neal. That lineup is a -30 in 294 minutes together (-4.9 per 48). When you replace Hickson with Varejao, you get a unit that's +7 in 129 minutes together (+2.6 per 48).

When a team evaluates how valuable a player is, it has to consider the quality of replacements. If James had a twin brother coming off the bench for the Cavs that was equally big, athletic and skilled, then LeBron's value wouldn't be nearly as great. But his replacement is Jamario Moon, much skinnier and far less skilled.

Varejao's value wasn't as great last season when the Cavs had Ben Wallace and Joe Smith backing him up. In fact, Wallace was near the top of the league (-6.7) when it came to on-off court differential on the defensive end, while Varejao's defensive differential was small (-0.6).

This year is a different story. Smith is in Atlanta, Wallace is in Detroit, and Hickson has been put in a role that he's not quite ready for. For now, the Cavs are able to get away with his 19 minutes per game, but you'd better believe that they'd like to acquire another veteran power forward, preferably one who can shoot from beyond 10 feet.

Until that other power forward comes along, Varejao is clearly the Cavs' second-most valuable player. And he should also be a leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year and First Team All-Defense consideration.

Earlier this season, we looked at on-off defensive numbers from last season, and declared the Grizzlies' Rudy Gay the worst defensive player in the league. The Grizzlies allowed 9.9 points per 100 possessions more when Gay was on the floor than they did when he was off it.

This season, Gay's differential is negative (which is good -- and represents quite a turnaround), but it's not because the Grizzlies' defense is much better with him on the floor. It's just a lot worse with him off it.

Gone from the Grizzlies' bench this season are Quinton Ross, Greg Buckner, Marko Jaric, Hakim Warrick and Darko Milicic, who formed a pretty solid defensive unit last season. Ross, an excellent defender now with the Mavs, was Gay's main backup. His minutes have been replaced by rookies DeMarre Carroll and Sam Young. And at this point in their careers, neither Carroll nor Young are close to being the defensive specialist that Ross is.

Of course, the Grizzlies are a far better team than they were last year, thanks to a much improved offense.

John Schuhmann is a staff writer for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here and follow him on twitter.

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