As teams take stock, trade talks may start heating up

The evidence is there, game in, game out. Scouts, plenty of them, are taking notes and observing strengths and weaknesses. They're not only looking at games, they're studying players, in case that player comes aboard in the near future.

It's never too early to weigh trades. One already happened, although it was done for emergency reasons; the Warriors had to get rid of Stephen Jackson before he lit another torch. As the NBA season creeps closer to the spring deadline, teams are taking stock of their needs and excesses and wondering if it's time to make improvements or almost time to bail.

The twist this season is salary cap space and the upcoming free-agent summer of 2010. Some teams, most famously the Knicks, won't add salary no matter what, but will look to dump any dead weight they can (Eddy Curry, in this instance). Other teams won't have any cap flexibility for next summer and therefore have fewer restrictions on how much salary they can take back in a trade.

Two players, in particular, would be moved in a heartbeat if they were fully healthy: Tracy McGrady and Michael Redd. McGrady is the game's highest-paid player but he's on the final year of his deal, making him somewhat attractive. Redd has two years left on his max deal and is still suffering from a re-injury to his surgically repaired knee. The Bucks can't start rebuilding in earnest until he leaves. They may be stuck with him.

Teams are looking for established talent, a missing piece for the playoffs, a Draft pick or cap relief. And those players in question might welcome a change of scenery. Given their situations, here's a handful who just might change jerseys this year:

Yeah, right: Dangle the best scorer, pound for pound, in the NBA right now, on the open market. Ellis is on a tear but nobody in the organization is sold on his happiness in Oakland. Just a year ago his relationship with management was chilly and seemingly beyond repair.

Given his amped scoring over the last few weeks, his trade value will never get higher than it is right now. And because of his contract ($11 million per season) his value could fall if he ever goes on a prolonged shooting slump. Therefore, if the Warriors hope to get the franchise moving in the right direction with a blockbuster deal, they could plug a hole or two by moving Ellis.

If the right pieces are acquired, the Warriors have Ellis' replacement in Steph Curry and also figure to get scoring from Anthony Morrow. While Ellis is unquestionably their best player, his absence could be minimized with the right move.

Something's not right with the Wizards. They figured to be one of the most improved teams in basketball, mainly because His Quirkiness, Gilbert Arenas, was declared physically fit and ready to go after missing virtually two seasons. They also hired Flip Saunders, a rather mild-mannered coach who doesn't rub his players the wrong way. And the core of the Wizards -- Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Butler -- all seemed to be on or near the top of their game.

But a month into the season, Washington is looking dreadful some nights, functional on others, never dropping hints that 50 wins are possible. Worse, some players are getting snippy. And you know what's really bad? They can't trade Arenas because his money owed would take care of the Federal deficit.

They could find a landing spot for Butler, however, because his salary is manageable and he's much better than he's showing now. One scout said the Wizards should get a point guard and move Arenas to the 2-spot, thereby reducing his overwhelming responsibilities. Your move, Wizards.

The Pistons maximized his best years when they made a habit of reaching the Eastern Conference finals and winning a championship earlier this decade. Well, we're about to enter another decade, and every year they hang onto Hamilton, his value drops. He still has a shooting touch and would give a contending team an extra weapon, meaning, there's probably a decent market for him.

Hamilton doesn't carry as much weight with the Pistons anymore because they're not competing for a title and because there are already enough guards on the roster. Why sign Ben Gordon, as the Pistons did last summer, and bring him off the bench? And isn't Will Bynum ready to step into a bigger role?

The issue, obviously, is whether potential teams are wary about Hamilton's bum ankle, which probably wouldn't pass a physical. Once he returns to action, however, don't be surprised if several teams pay close attention to his health.

Does anyone want an athletic post player with the wingspan of a prehistoric bird and who's only 23 years old? Of course someone would. Figure that a half-dozen teams believe Thomas hasn't yet hit his peak and, in the right situation, could flourish. Of course, he could turn into another Stromile Swift, too: all athlete, no pure basketball skills. The Bulls must have some doubts, because they didn't extend Thomas in the offseason (not that they had to), and after three-plus years, Thomas has shown only mild improvement.

He should return soon from a fractured arm, and in Thomas' absence, rookie Taj Gibson has shown promise. The Bulls are sitting pretty, either way. They can hope Thomas has a breakout year and offer him an extension next summer, or swap him before the deadline for help elsewhere.

Shaun Powell is a veteran NBA writer and columnist. You can e-mail him here.

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