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Shaun Powell

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If Michael Redd's Knee holds up, he might not be in Milwaukee for long.
Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images

No time to waste? Fast-forward through the 2009-10 season


Posted Oct 26 2009 11:14AM

The anticipation. The drama. The fresh new faces in new places. The memories from last year, good and bad, sweet and salty. The slate, wiped clean for everyone. And real referees, not loaners from Foot Locker.

It all awaits the NBA starting Tuesday, when the ball goes up for good and we get our first hunch about the next eight months. Some of it will be pretty predictable (the trophy will fall in the hands of the Celtics, Lakers, Cavs, Spurs or Magic and nobody else). Some of it totally unexpected (Ron Artest, good citizen!). That's the beauty of the 82-game season, plus playoffs. The league finds a way to strike a perfect balance.

So, here's your choice. You can either sit through an entire season and see how it all develops or, if you've got a life to live, just take a few minutes and read all about 2009-10 right here.

Surprise Team

They stand a far better chance of holding a UN summit than the Larry O'Brien trophy. But the Raptors, who speak more languages than Berlitz, will throw a memorable season-long going-away party for Chris Bosh. Six new players will figure into the rotation, which raises the possibility of a chaotic first few months. But everyone on the roster has a specific role. Ballhandling by Jose Calderon. Outside shooting by Andrea Bargnani. Rebounding by Reggie Evans. Toughness by Jarret Jack. Scoring off the dribble by Hedo Turkoglu. Young bounce by DeMar DeRozan. Defense by ... um, oh well. You won't fall in love with any one player, but you'll fall in like with several. Plus, Bosh is playing for money. They'll finish top-6 in the East, make the playoffs, pull a first-round surprise and then reach for a hanky when Bosh goes off to ... drum roll ... Miami.

Disappointing Team

The appropriate word to describe the topography of Denver and the state of the Nuggets: peaked. You really think the Nuggets will beat or match 54 wins and that nice playoff run? There's good reason for doubt. As easily as it all came together last year, it can fall apart for a team that didn't get better in the offseason. Everyone loves Chauncey Billups, the best leader in basketball. But he is 33 and playing a young man's position. Good luck asking him to average 18 points a game again, critical for a team that lacks punch off the bench. Same for J.R. Smith, coming off a career year. Chris Andersen was a find, but now we see if the hype was a bit thick. The moons were aligned for the Nuggets a year ago but now the Trail Blazers are ready to start a run on division titles.

Most Likely to Be Traded Before Deadline

The length of Michael Redd's contract once stretched from Milwaukee to Mars. Now that it's down to a manageable two years (big money, still), some contender might bite. Lots depends on what Redd has left after knee surgery. Shooters are always in demand. Which brings up Rip Hamilton. Watch out for him, too, now that the Pistons have Ben Gordon.

Coach Who Should Watch His Back

If the Clippers (whom a lot of folks like) don't get off to a decent start, Mike Dunleavy better be careful. Or else Donald Sterling might wake up and notice he hasn't had a new coach in six years, an eternity in Clipperland.

Owner Who Should Watch His Back

When the Nuggets and Kenyon Martin come to town, you suppose Mark Cuban will either be sitting in the suites, or hiding behind something very immovable and impenetrable, like Erick Dampier's contract?

Players Falling

Allen Iverson (too easy), Elton Brand (this year will tell), Shawn Marion, Shaq, Baron Davis. A few years ago these five were still in their groove, or pretty close. At least there's some good news for the group: Only Iverson ($17 million drop) and Marion ($11 million) took serious pay cuts this year. The Iverson cut must be a world record. Oh, wait. Stephon Marbury just went from $21 million to zero. Never mind.

Players Rising

Rajon Rondo (it's now the Big Four in Boston), Brook Lopez, Jeff Green (especially if he gets enough touches), Anthony Morrow, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn't played a game yet; he's that good). Also, just a wild, wild hunch: Roy Hibbert. Wild hunch.

The Next Massive Star

All the ingredients are there for Kevin Durant to have a major, major year. He plays for a developing team that needs him to shoot, shoot, shoot. He hasn't touched his ceiling. And since Oklahoma City isn't winning a championship anytime soon, the focus will be on Durant for now. It's sort of where Chicago was in Michael Jordan's first few years. The Bulls knew folks didn't come to see them. Folks came for Jordan. So the Bulls gave them Jordan. Same here. Durant will finish top 3 in scoring.

Player Poised to Pout

Chris Paul will once again enter the MVP discussion, and will exit with nothing but nice stats to show for it. Paul will miss Tyson Chandler, not because he was a stud, but because the plodding Emeka Okefor will drag down the offense. This is also the year Peja Stojakovic, no longer the Peja of Sacramento, whiffs on the open J. For the Hornets, they'll have no 50 wins. No postseason beyond the first round. But definitely a frustrated All-Star.

Five Conclusions About 2009-10

5. Minnesota won't be the most miserable team ever. The 1972-73 Sixers come to mind. But a generation never saw that team.

4. Tim Duncan is no longer as dominant as before, but with that team, it won't matter.

3. Hard to believe, but Blake Griffin will not turn into another tragic Clippers No. 1 overall pick. Not unlucky like Danny Manning. Not a dud like Michael Olowokandi. Just solid.

2. Not this year, Greg Oden.

1. Everyone bows to the King. That includes Kobe.

Shaun Powell is a veteran NBA writer and columnist. You can e-mail him here.

The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.

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