
Posted Nov 12 2009 11:45AM
Last week's analysis of who's clutch and who's not drew a lot of feedback. Many of you thought it absurd to consider anyone other than Kobe Bryant to be the most clutch player in the NBA.
I understand where you're coming from. It's hard to accept that Corey Maggette is more clutch than Bryant, and maybe the problem is with using the word "clutch" and the parameters that we used: shots taken with less than five minutes to go in the game and with a scoring margin of five points or less.
It's hard to define a trip to the line with 4:50 to go in a late-March game between the Warriors and Kings as truly clutch. But the five-and-five numbers are ones that NBA teams use in their own statistical analysis. Ultimately, the point of this kind of analysis is for coaches and GMs (and now writers and fans) to be able to determine the likelihood of a certain event occurring on a single possession.
There are other factors, but the question remains: "Which player is more likely to score if the ball is in their hands in a tight game down the stretch, Corey Maggette or Kobe Bryant?" Stats wise, the answer is Maggette.
The reasoning is simple: Maggette gets to the line more often than Bryant. And getting to the line lets you score more points per possession than when you shoot from the field.
Reader George sent an e-mail asking how Manu Ginobili had a higher true shooting percentage than Steve Nash, even though Nash shot better from the field, from 3-point range and from the line. Answer: Ginobili got to the line far more often.
Because the playoffs are another level of intensity in which to measure clutch, we asked StatsCube to give us those numbers for the last five postseasons.
| Highest True Shooting Percentage in Clutch Situations, Last Five Postseasons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Minimum 25 FGA TS% = True Shooting Percentage = PTS/ (2*(FGA + (0.44*FTA))) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
That list is probably closer to what you'd expect to see when you talk about clutch players. With a minimum of 25 shots, only 29 players qualify. Still, it's odd to see good players near the bottom of the list.
For instance: Dwyane Wade, who carried the Heat to a title in 2006, is No. 22 in this category.
In postseason clutch situations in the last five years, Wade shot just 34.9 percent from the field, 1-for-7 from 3-point range and didn't get to the line nearly as much as you might think (the top seven above all got to the line more frequently). So his TS% is just 0.473.
Just for kicks, StatsCube ran numbers for situations with less than one minute to go and a scoring margin of three points or less. When we got a bunch of point guards at the top of the list we realized that intentional fouls at the end of games were skewing the stats. We eliminated situations where the player's team was ahead, leaving us with a tie game or a deficit of three points or less in the final minute.
Let's call those "Ultra-Clutch" situations.
And for this query, we used both the regular season and playoffs.
| Highest True Shooting Percentage in "Ultra-Clutch" Situations, Last Five Seasons | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Minimum 30 FGA, Includes postseason |
Again, we have a list that's easier on the brain than one that includes Maggette, Mehmet Okur and Kyle Korver. But of course, it doesn't include our fab four of Anthony, Bryant, James and Wade. LeBron is actually just one spot behind Roy at No. 11, 'Melo is at No. 17, Kobe is at No. 31 and of the 60 players that qualified, D-Wade was No. 53.
| True Shooting Percentage in Ultra-Clutch Situations, Last Five Seasons | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Includes postseason |
"The Celtics always seem to do their best in the third quarter, what is it that they do more of in that quarter?" -- Aaron Mason
So far this season, the Celtics have been best in the fourth quarter (which has included a lot of garbage time), with their offensive efficiency increasing as the game goes on. They've actually struggled (relatively speaking) early on.
| Celtics Efficiency by Quarter, 2009-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Off. Rat. = Points scored per 100 possessions Def. Rat. = Points allowed per 100 possessions |
Interestingly, over the last three seasons (or since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen arrived), it's been the first quarter that has been the Celtics' best. Not surprisingly, the defense has been the difference.
| Celtics' Efficiency by Quarter, 2007-08 through 2009-10 | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Off. Rat. = Points scored per 100 possessions Def. Rat. = Points allowed per 100 possessions |
That seems to make sense. The first quarter is when the Boston starters were likely on the floor for the longest time.
There are a couple of interesting studies when you look at quarter-by-quarter numbers from last season. The first is the Hawks, who were terrible in the first quarter (especially offensively), but got dramatically better as the game went on.
| Hawks Efficiency by Quarter, 2008-09 | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Off. Rat. = Points scored per 100 possessions Def. Rat. = Points allowed per 100 possessions |
Did the Hawks tend to come out with little energy and get more into the game as it went on? Is Mike Woodson great at in-game adjustments? That may be something to take a look at further down the line.
The other fascinating quarter-by-quarter breakdown from last season was that of the Hornets, who were very good in every quarter but the second. And in the second, they were awful.
| Hornets Efficiency by Quarter, 2008-09 | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Off. Rat. = Points scored per 100 possessions Def. Rat. = Points allowed per 100 possessions |
Chalk that up to how important Chris Paul is and how they don't have anything close to a suitable backup.
This season, the Hornets are performing poorly in every quarter.
"Which team shot the lowest field-goal percentage and still won?" -- Aaron Wohl
The Bobcats hold the honor so far this season, and though less than 10 percent of the season is complete, it's hard to imagine anyone will get any lower. Charlotte shot a miserable 32.4 percent in their Nov. 2 win over the Nets. I watched some of that game and couldn't sleep that night, thinking about how ugly it was.
Going back to 1991-92, the lowest shooting percentage by a winning team was 27.7 percent by the Mavericks in their 94-89 win in Vancouver on Nov. 13, 1995. The Grizzlies shot 41.8 percent in that game, but Dallas beat them by getting to the line 38 times.
Jason Kidd led the Mavs with 25 points in that game, while the other two Js (Jamal Mashburn and Jim Jackson) combined to shoot 9-for-38.
Steve Nash scored 21 points and dished out 20 assists in the Suns' win in Philadelphia on Monday. It was the second 20-20 game of his career. He first did it on Jan. 2, 2006, in a triple-overtime loss in New York, scoring 28 points and dropping 22 dimes.
The only other active players with 20-point, 20-assist games are Jason Kidd and Ramon Sessions, who each have one. Kidd's (20 and 25) was in a double-overtime game in 1996, while Sessions' (20 and 24) was in just the 16th game of his career, in April of 2008.
Chris Paul came one point shy of a 20-20 game on Nov. 6, 2007, when he scored 19 points and dished out 21 assists in a win over the Lakers in L.A. He has also come two assists shy on three different occasions.
Since 2004-05 (five seasons plus), there have 86 20-20 games with points and rebounds (Dwight Howard has 24 of them), but just three with points and assists.
The Other Agent Zero In Wednesday's win over the Bobcats, Ben Wallace played 30:35, but didn't score a point. It was the 14th time in his career that he's played at least 30 minutes without scoring a point, but the first time he did it without even attempting a shot.
John Schuhmann is a staff writer for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here and follow him on twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.


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