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The Numbers Game: Best offenses do it in different ways

By John Schuhmann, NBA.com
Posted Jan 14 2009 12:40PM

There are certain keys to having an efficient offense in the NBA, but there's no set formula. The best offenses score in many different ways. Some play fast, others play slow. Some score in the paint, others score from the perimeter. Some protect the ball well, others get to the line often.

Here's a breakdown of the five most efficient offenses in the league.

First, here's what numbers we're using:

Offensive Rating = points scored per 100 possessions
Pace = possessions per game
Off. Reb. Rate = Percentage of available offensive rebounds attained
Turnover Rate = Turnovers per 100 possessions
Paint Percentage = Percentage of points scored in the paint
Fast Break Percentage = Percentage of points scored on the break
FTA/Poss. = Free throw attempts per 100 possessions
Ast./FG = Percentage of field goals assisted on
3-point Attempt Perc. = Percentage of field goal attempts that are threes

League rank in parentheses

1. Los Angeles Lakers (31-6)

Offensive Rating: 114.9
Pace: 93.7 (4)
Off. Reb. Rate: 29.3 (5)
Turnover Rate: 14.8 (5)
Paint Percentage: 42.3 (8)
Fast Break Percentage: 11.2 (17)
FTA/Poss.: 30.0 (5)
Ast./FG: 58.9 (8)
3-point Attempt Perc.: 21.8 (16)

The Lakers don't rank high in fast break points but still play at a fast pace. The triangle offense is quick, efficient and benefits from ball movement. With a huge frontline that's tough on the glass, they give themselves extra opportunities to score. With the steady Derek Fisher running the show, they take care of the ball. And with Kobe Bryant leading the way, they get to the line often. When you're the No. 1 offense in the league, you do a lot of things well.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers (30-6)

Offensive Rating: 114.7
Pace: 88.4 (24)
Off. Reb. Rate: 28.2 (8)
Turnover Rate: 15.1 (10)
Paint Percentage: 38.1 (20)
Fast Break Percentage: 12.5 (10)
FTA/Poss.: 28.8 (8)
Ast./FG: 54.6 (26)
3-point Attempt Perc.: 26.1 (5)

The Cavs are an interesting study. The pace number, by itself, seems to indicate that they play slow. But the fast break points (they also give up a high percentage) tell you otherwise. The slow pace may be more of a factor of their No. 1 defense, which makes opponents use a lot of clock to find a good shot.

What may be the most interesting thing about the Cavs is that they don't score a high percentage of their points in the paint, but they rank second in the league by shooting 52.5 percent from inside the arc. They might be the best midrange shooting team in the league.

3. Portland Trail Blazers (23-14)

Offensive Rating: 114.5
Pace: 85.1 (30)
Off. Reb. Rate: 32.6 (1)
Turnover Rate: 15.0 (9)
Paint Percentage: 36.6 (24)
Fast Break Percentage: 8.8 (28)
FTA/Poss.: 27.7 (14)
Ast./FG: 57.5 (11)
3-point Attempt Perc.: 25.5 (7)

The Blazers take their time. They don't run. They work the clock and they work it well. They put the ball in Brandon Roy's hands and he makes good decisions with it. And with a great rebounding frontline (Aldridge, Oden, Przybilla), they give themselves plenty of second opportunities, though they rank only 25th in turning offensive rebounding into second-chance points (1.13 points per offensive board).

4. Phoenix Suns (22-13)

Offensive Rating: 113.4
Pace: 91.7 (9)
Off. Reb. Rate: 25.7 (22)
Turnover Rate: 17.4 (26)
Paint Percentage: 42.5 (7)
Fast Break Percentage: 11.3 (16)
FTA/Poss.: 29.3 (6)
Ast./FG: 55.7 (19)
3-point Attempt Perc.: 22.9 (14)

The Suns started out slowly, but have increased their pace as the season has gone on (93.3 possessions per game over their last 12). With an All-Star frontline, they score in the paint (they lead the league in 2-point percentage) and they get to the line often. Their assist ratio is way down from last season (when it was 64.5 percent) and they turn the ball over too much, but they have so much offensive talent (defense is an entirely different story) that they make up for it.

5. Orlando Magic (31-8)


Offensive Rating: 111.7
Pace: 91.1 (10)
Off. Reb. Rate: 24.0 (27)
Turnover Rate: 15.5 (13)
Paint Percentage: 34.7 (28)
Fast Break Percentage: 11.0 (20)
FTA/Poss.: 28.8 (7)
Ast./FG: 54.1 (28)
3-point Attempt Perc.: 33.1 (2)

Bombs away! As we saw Tuesday night in Sacramento, where the Magic set an NBA record with 23 threes, this team likes to shoot from deep (only the Knicks shoot a greater percentage of their shots from beyond the arc). The Magic were actually ninth in the league in offensive efficiency before Tuesday, but their 139-point performance against the Kings vaulted them up to No. 5, replacing the Nuggets. When you think of the Magic, you first think of Dwight Howard, but this is not a team that scores in the paint that much, nor do the Magic give themselves many second-chance opportunities.

Common Threads

One thing that you'll notice is missing from the numbers above is shooting percentage. It's pretty much a given that the best offenses in the league shoot well, and all five of these teams rank in the top 11 when it comes to pure field-goal percentage, and in the top nine when it comes to effective field-goal percentage (which gives 1.5x value for threes).

Other than that, the most common thread among these five teams is their ability to get to the foul line. They're all above the league average. Interestingly, for the league overall, the factor above that correlates most with offensive efficiency is 3-point attempt percentage. Somewhere Rashard Lewis is smiling, because in general, shooting threes is a good thing.

Next, when it comes to league-wide correlation, is free throw attempts and (lack of) turnovers. Meanwhile, in-the-paint percentage and fast-break percentage are negatively correlated with offensive efficiency. That should be a lesson to the Sixers, who do both of the above well but still rank 23rd in efficiency.

The lesson: You need shooters in this league.

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