Muddled class of prospects marks this year's Draft

PORTSMOUTH, Va. -- This is the time of year when you have to be careful, because college personnel evaluations in April and May are notoriously (a) pessimistic, and (b) outright fiction, lies told by teams who badmouth prospects in the hopes that they slide down in the Draft, where the team is waiting with a late first-round or early second-round pick.

But I don't think the personnel types that I trust are lying to me when they say that, after Oklahoma's Blake Griffin is taken with the first pick in June, there's no telling what will happen.

There's no consensus. Some are pining for Spanish guard Ricky Rubio [above], who has a huge buyout from his Spanish team, Jovenut, to work out before he can come across the Atlantic . Others seek Connecticut's 7-foot-3 junior center, Hasheem Thabeet, who has not yet formally decided whether he'll skip his senior season and enter the draft. If Rubio and Thabeet are in the Draft, they'll probably go No. 2 and No. 3.

But which one goes two or three depends on who's picking. And, seven weeks before the Draft, the rest of the top half of the first round is equally unknowable. The difference between this year and previous years is we still may not know the complete top five well into June -- perhaps into the final week before the draft.

This year, talent is truly in the eye of the beholder.

"Everyone in this Draft has more warts than we want to see, especially the lottery guys," says the scouting director of a Western Conference team. "A team is going to have to convince itself. It's going to have to allow itself to fall in love with somebody."

For example: Ohio State's 7-foot freshman center B.J. Mullens, who's declared for the Draft and already hired an agent. He's in. One team's personnel guy, whom I trust impeccably, has Mullens in the top six. Another team's personnel guy doesn't even have him in the top half of the first round and can't believe anyone else would. He thinks the Buckeyes' star sophomore guard, Evan Turner, will be a much better pro than his teammate -- if Turner decides to put his name into the Draft.

Complicating matters are, Rubio aside, a lack of legit international talent this year, combined with a general feeling that this year's Draft is filled with players with less upside than in the past. Call it the Tyler Hansbrough Effect.

Hansbrough, North Carolina's senior forward and the all-time leader in scoring both at Carolina and in the ACC, is celebrated for his work ethic and toughness, both of which were on display during the Tar Heels' NCAA title run. But there aren't many NBA types who think he has another gear.

"The majority of players in this draft are going to be exactly what they are now at the next level," said an Eastern Conference scouting director. "The majority of the kids are the kids who pulled out of the Draft two years ago. Two years ago, you looked at their potential. And last year, you looked at their potential. And now it's like, they are what they are."

But you have to pick somebody. Here is a rough -- very rough -- consensus on the top prospects, some of whom have declared for the Draft, some of whom have not. As I wrote earlier, Griffin is everyone's No. 1, and if Rubio and Thabeet are in The Theatre at Madison Square Garden on June 26, they'll be the next to go.

Here's the best of the rest. They're all underclassmen; no matter whether they're ready or not, the one-and-done phenomenon is only going to increase, with the desire to get the clock started on potential free agency as quickly as possible:

Note: * = underclassman

Position: Forward
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-10/235/Freshman
College: Arizona
DA's take: The latest in the Wildcats' line of NBA-ready talent, Hill has not officially declared. But he's on everyone's top five list that I spoke with, and that usually means they get in and stay in.

Position: Shooting guard
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-5/218/Sophomore
College: Arizona State
DA's take: Was as high as No. 3 overall on many Draft boards before the NCAA Tournament, where a poor performance really hurt his standing with some -- some -- NBA teams. But still in the Top10 and everyone's top two-guard prospect in a generally weak year for twos.

Position: Guard/forward
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-7/205/Sophomore
College: Ohio State
DA's take: Solid Top 10 if he declares, with some teams putting him in the top five.

Position: Small forward
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-9/220/Junior
College: Louisville
DA's take: Declared for the Draft and hiring an agent. He's in. Moving up rapidly through many Draft boards.

Position: Shooting guard
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-7/219/Freshman
College: Memphis
DA's take: Declared and hiring an agent. Solidly in the Top 10, but can he break through the top five? NBA scouts note that Evans struggled when teams loaded up on him; they point to the Feb. 26 game against the University of Alabama-Birmingham when Evans was just 3-of-14 from the floor and had nine turnovers against UAB's pressure D.

(Before I continue with the Top10, some Portsmouth Invitational Tournament asides: Among those others who also helped themselves with strong efforts here were UAB guard Paul Delaney; Gonzaga small forward Micah Downs, Central Florida guard Jermaine Taylor -- who both attracted and repulsed various NBA types with his shoot-at-all-times mentality -- N.C. State guard Courtney Fells and Missouri forward DeMarre Carroll, who won tournament MVP honors.

University of Washington forward Jon Brockman threw his 255 pounds all over the floor all week. Brockman had a monster game on Thursday, with 24 points and 21 rebounds, showing the kind of effort that made him stand out on tape all season to pro scouts. "Nobody likes playing against him," gushed a Northwest Division college scout.

But Brockman is only 6-foot-7. "If he were two inches taller," sighed the Northwest scout. But if he were two inches taller, he probably wouldn't be here. The PIT is held hostage every year by a handful of players who pull out at the last second, like Pittsburgh's Levance Fields and Michigan State's Goran Sutan did this year. Teams always complain that those players are being advised poorly by agents, knowing full well that the reason the agents keep them out of tournaments like this is because one of those teams promised the player they'd take him if he was still on the board. If you know or believe you're a first-rounder, playing in a tournament comprised of mainly second-rounders and free agents makes no sense.

Now, back to the first round countdown:)

Position: Point guard
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-1/170
College: Lottomatica (Italy)
DA's take: Depending on Rubio's status, the 19-year-old Jennings -- who got $1.2 mllion out of high school to play overseas this season instead of at Arizona -- will be the first or second point guard selected.

Position: Small forward
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-9/245/Sophomore
College: Wake Forest
DA's take: The 22-year-old sophomore is the highest-ranked of the three Wake underclassmen who currently are in the Draft, though not by a lot.

Position: Shooting guard
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-6/220/Freshman
College: USC
DA's take: One of three Trojans freshmen that have already declared, DeRozan has family issues that make it more likely he'll stay in. Harden is still viewed higher by most, however.

Position: Power forward
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-9/215/Freshman
College: Wake Forest
DA's take: Still deciding whether or not to enter, though most NBA types think he'll be in. His brother, Alade, the 6-foot-10 senior center from Georgia Tech, played well here at Portsmouth, leading his team to the tournament championship and enhancing his own draft prospects.

Position: Point guard
Height/Weight/Class: 6-foot-4/207/Freshman
College: Oklahoma
DA's take: Telling people he wants to try and win in Norman without the Griffin Brothers -- he called it "98.9 percent" that he would return in late March. A late lottery pick if he were to enter, but it might make more sense for him to return to college.

Send your salutations, comments and snark to daldridgetnt@gmail.com. Include your full name and city of residence. People whose e-mails are selected will automatically be chosen for the final 12 of American Idol next year! Well, actually, they won't. But your e-mail might get published.