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Forecasting the All-Star's starting five

By Art Garcia, NBA.com
Posted Jan 22 2009 2:51PM

The ballots have been cast and counted, and the world has spoken. We're just waiting to hear what they said.

The same week change swept through Washington, NBA Nation eagerly awaits the results of its yearly popularity contest. The announcement of the starters representing the Western and Eastern Conferences in next month's NBA All-Star Game comes down Thursday night at 7 p.m. on TNT.

But until Ernie Johnson and the gang spill the beans, let's speculate on the lucky 10 headed to Phoenix for the midseason classic. Going by the fourth and final voting returns released two weeks ago, the usual suspects are in place.

The starting five in the West, as of Jan. 8, had Tim Duncan (Spurs) and Carmelo Anthony (Nuggets) filling the forward spots, Kobe Bryant (Lakers) and Tracy McGrady (Rockets) at guard, and Yao Ming (Rockets) manning the middle.

The East team going into the stretch run: LeBron James (Cavaliers) and Kevin Garnett (Celtics) at forward, Dwyane Wade (Heat) and Allen Iverson (Pistons) in the backcourt, and Dwight Howard (Magic) handling center.

While the names make sense, considering the pedigrees of the players involved, there is room to debate the merits of some when taking this season into account. Of the 10, the three that stand out as questionable starters are Anthony, McGrady and Iverson.

Anthony and McGrady don't hold their customary spots among the league scoring leaders simply because they've missed too many games to injury. Fans do have a history of voting starters who have been hurt much of the season, and 'Melo and T-Mac are certainly All-Star caliber. There just may be better options for the West's first team.

Considering players in striking distance of Anthony in the last voting totals, power forwards Amar'e Stoudemire and Dirk Nowitzki are having the best seasons. Stoudemire, who was in third place, is the Suns' leading scorer and the All-Star Game is in his backyard. Nowitzki, a perennial All-Star, is fifth in the league in scoring.

Chris Paul is the obvious choice for the guard slot opposite Bryant if McGrady falls short. The Hornets' do-everything floor general is the MVP conversation -- again -- just as many of the other projected starters. Paul, in the opinion of most league observers and insiders, is the best point guard around.

Iverson's case may be a little trickier. Not only did he move from the West, but his numbers are down significantly. For the first time in AI's career, he's averaging less than 20 points per game and he's more than nine points off his career rate. Iverson's fame, on the other hand, has hardly dropped off.

His lead over the rest of the East guards in the last returns may be too much to overcome. Iverson was leading third-place Vince Carter by more than 400,000 votes. Ray Allen and the much-improved Devin Harris are considerably further back.

As far as the other seven vote leaders, arguing against any of them as a starter is foolish. LeBron, Kobe, D-Wade, Howard and Duncan are generally recognized among the leading contenders for MVP. Garnett is coming off a title and may be the NBA's most team-oriented superstar. A rejuvenated Shaquille O'Neal is making a strong All-Star case, but Yao is the best pivot out West.

The speculation ends with Thursday's announcement of the All-Star starters during TNT's NBA Tip-Off at 7 p.m. ET. The reserves follow in one week. Let the guessing begin.

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