Analysis: Thunder's move doesn't change long-term outlook

Ball don't lie.

Won-loss don't lie.

Losing by 12 a night don't lie.

And, so, P.J. Carlesimo got fired early Saturday, the first coaching victim of the still-young NBA season. With his Thunder a league-worst 1-12, not selling out games in what was supposed to be a honeymoon-first season in Oklahoma City, general manager Sam Presti had little choice. Assistant Scott Brooks will coach the team the rest of this season.

"We were not playing well," Presti said late Saturday afternoon. "It was time for us to look at changing the direction of the team. But it's not just one person. It's collectively all of us, myself included."

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Indeed, Carlesimo couldn't have been solely responsible for the Thunder's abysmal offensive numbers (29th in scoring, 30th in field goal percentage, one of just two teams that has yet to score 100 in a game this season) and equally bad defense (29th in points allowed). But he was the head guy, and his players weren't showing any signs that they were responding to him.

The decision was likely made before Friday's humiliating 25-point loss at home to the Hornets, the team that had won the hearts of Oklahoma City fans when it played there for two seasons after being displaced from New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina.

(Carlesimo may have known his time was short in Oklahoma City; his family stayed back in Seattle this season while he coached 1,538 miles away.)

And with two days off after the team returns from its Saturday night game in New Orleans, Presti thought there was no better time than the present to make a switch, and give Brooks a couple of days of practice to work with his team.

"We like Scottie," Presti said. "He may be a little positive impact on our guys, and having a skill set that can help us. Scott's somebody that has diverse experience as a player, and also as a coach. He brings passion to the game. He's very prepared. I think he'll do a very good job in terms of development and helping our guys."

Whether or not Brooks is the long-term answer at coach, the long-term plan for the Thunder (I originally typed "Sonics;" still hard getting over that one) has not changed.

When Presti took over a year ago, he opted not to keep veterans Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis on the roster, figuring that they'd be too old and not pulling their salary-cap weight by the time the team's new franchise player, Kevin Durant, was ready for prime time. By then, Durant would be demanding superstar dollars, and if the Sonics were still paying Allen and Lewis, there wouldn't be any money available. So Presti dealt Allen to Boston, got another first-round pick that became swingman Jeff Green, and let Lewis go to Orlando via free agency.

In the meantime, Presti got first-rounders in 2008 and 2010 from Phoenix, along with forward Kurt Thomas, for a second-round pick and an $8 million trade exception. (The Suns didn't use the exception before it expired this past summer.) Presti then flipped Thomas at the trade deadline last February, sending him to San Antonio for Brent Barry, Francisco Elson and a 2009 first-rounder.

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That left Oklahoma City with six first-round picks from 2008 through 2010 and seven second-rounders, including four in last year's draft. The Thunder traded two of those to Detroit for forward D.J. White, who joined UCLA point guard Russell Westbrook and project center DeVon Hardin into last year's draft haul. The Thunder still has two firsts in 2009 (its own and the Spurs', which is lottery protected) and 2010 (its own and Phoenix's, which is not protected).

And the Thunder only has $22.9 million committed after the 2009-10 season, when every team and its grandma is hoarding cap room in hopes of being a player in the free agent bonanza featuring LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

But no one knows for sure whether owner Clay Bennett, who couldn't reach a deal for a new arena in Seattle, will open up his wallet wide enough to write the big check that will be necessary not only to get one of those stars, but to keep Durant. The Thunder is one of just two teams in the league (Memphis is the other) with a team salary currently under the league's $58.6 million salary cap.

And no one knows if Presti will get to implement his long-term vision.

Every GM gets to fire one head coach without much second-guessing.

After that, all bets are off.