Open Case #B88SC4R3 --- They're Heeee-eeere!

Well, I survived another Friday the 13th, and the only guy in a hockey mask I saw was on OLN. In keeping with the spirit (LOL) of the day, I caught the E! True Hollywood Story entitled, "The Curse of Poltergeist". The two-hour show suggests that the trilogy of 80's horror films were "cursed", apparently due to their subject matter ---"angry ghosts" for those of you who either were too young to have seen the film or are not fluent enough in German to know the meaning of the word poltergeist. It seems that bad luck ran rampant on the set during shooting. There were lots of spooky accidents and injuries, and the show alleges that this run of misfortune extended to the actors' post-shooting life as well.

The main support for this belief is the shocking deaths of four different cast members, including 12 year-old Heather O'Rourke's intestines exploding from a mystery ailment, and Dominique Dunne being strangled to death by her boyfriend. While horribly tragic, I'd hardly call this a curse. The other two deaths cited were somewhat expected: Will Sampson died from complications of a heart-lung transplant, a very risky procedure to say the least, and Julian Beck was terminally ill with cancer when he was cast. Hard to blame the evil spirits for those two.

Of course, the other fly in the ointment for these supernatural conspiracy theorists? The producer of the film was Steven Spielberg – his career since then has not exactly been what I would call snake-bitten. No, I think the only truly lasting "curse" of the films is that they introduced to America the wooden acting of Lara Flynn Boyle. Now there's a nightmare that simply refuses to go away.

I was talking to a co-worker about his fantasy hoops team, and he mentioned that his league drafts two head coaches each and has a rotisserie category of "Wins". My jaw dropped to the floor when I heard this and, for a brief moment, my dinner turned into maggots and I peeled my own flesh from my face. When I snapped out of the haunting illusion, I told him how insane that concept is. All they are doing is predicting which NBA team will have the best record. That's not fantasy basketball… that's real basketball. But it did make me wonder if there was a way to figure out a fantasy value for NBA coaches.

A simple solution came to me in a variation of the old CBA scoring model. Give a coach 1 point for a victory, and also 1 point for each quarter his team wins (half a point for a tied quarter). It's not very common for a team to win all four quarters of a game. Teams that are ahead late in a game tend to ease off the gas. But some teams who fall way behind early don't give up and win a few quarters, even in defeat. Some teams that trail at the half put up huge third quarters to get back in the game. These latter examples are often the result of halftime adjustments and substitutions made by the head coach.

Using this point scoring system as a category opens up the pool a bit, but you still need to force your Owners to look deeper than last year's playoff teams for their coaches. Teams should be required to have a two-man coaching staff, one from each conference, and one coming from a non-playoff team from the previous season. If an NBA team fires one of your coaches, you may then choose a replacement who keeps you in line with these criteria. However, if you want to fire the coach yourself, there should be some limitations. Once and only once during a season you can invite Tangina into your locker room to clean house. You must fire your whole staff – BOTH coaches must go – and you can replace them with any two coaches who partner up into the appropriate categories. After all, if you move the cemetery, you've got to move ALL the bodies, too.

Stern Words of Wisdom

I decided to take this one step beyond and really see if I could find a statistic to gauge the success or failure of an NBA coach. And so I present the XCF Ranking, a sort of X-factor for coaches. It measures which NBA teams are overachieving and which ones are still watching bass fishing on ESPN because they were too lazy to change the channel after their game's highlights aired on SportsCenter. The XCF is based on the number of games a team leads at various points of a game, such as at the half and after three quarters. Given the probability a team should win when leading (or trailing) at a certain time juncture, we can project an expected win total for the season. Ranking the teams in this category gives us an idea on where a team should be in relation to the rest of the league. Comparing this number to the actual standings, we'll see who is exceeding expectations and who is not even close.

While the coach may not 100% responsible for these numbers, maximizing a team's talent, effort and performance is a coach's most important duty, and therefore I feel this stat is an accurate barometer for his effectiveness. Most of the league falls within three ranking spots (plus or minus) of their expected position. The table below shows the Top 5 candidates for Coach of the Year thus far (starting with the team from America's Dairyland) as well as the Top 5 candidates for putting a "FOR SALE" sign on their lawn, and spending the night in a flea-bag motel… without a TV set, of course.

TEAM Actual Wins League Rank XCF Rating XCF Rank XCF-W Coach Standing as of 1/12/06
Milwaukee 18 12.5 35.75 22.5 10 Terry Stotts 6 seed in East
Utah 19 9 38.00 17 8 Jerry Sloan 3 seed in West
New Jersey 19 9 41.50 13 4 Lawrence Frank 2 seed in East
Washington 14 22 33.00 26 4 Eddie Jordan 8 seed (tied) in East
Golden State 17 15.5 37.25 19 3.5 Mike Montgomery 8 seed (tied) in West
Seattle 15 19 40.25 15 -4 Bob Weiss (Bob Hill) 11th place in West
Boston 14 22 37.75 18 -4 Doc Rivers 10th place in East
Charlotte 11 28.5 34.75 24 -4.5 Bernie Bickerstaff 14th place in East
Denver 18 12.5 49.50 7.5 -5 George Karl 8 seed (tied) in West
Philadelphia 17 15.5 49.50 7.5 -8 Maurice Cheeks 7 seed in East

As you can see, the firing of Bob Weiss by the Sonics was more than justified. I'd wager George Karl will be the next to get the axe. It should be Mo Cheeks, but his history with the Sixers, coupled with the weakness of the Atlantic Division should enough to keep him around for the time being. That, and the evil clown doll he uses to guard his office door.

Next week: More from the mailbag, including angry letters from Tobe Hooper, Craig T. Nelson, Zelda Rubenstein and Century 21.
Run into the light y'all… there is peace and happiness in the light.
All rise… The Court has now adjourned!

AJ Mass is a fantasy expert for NBA.com. His column The Commish’s Court runs every Saturday as part of the NBA.com Premium Scouting Report. Contact him at thecommish@TalentedMrRoto.com.

The views expressed by the TalentedMrRoto.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.